MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
58-60 | Road
3
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
73-44 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Taj Bradley
#26 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Robert Gasser
#54 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taj Bradley | 9-4 | 3.69 | 1.24 | 126.2 | 141 |
| Robert Gasser | 3-4 | 4.48 | 1.17 | 62.1 | 58 |
9-4
W-L
3-4
3.69 Ldr
ERA
4.48
1.24
WHIP
Ldr 1.17
126.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
62.1
141 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
58
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
42%
BREWERS
58%
TWINS
44%
Book Odds: +128
BREWERS
58%
Book Odds: -139
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.1
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.1 (Over)
Over 8.0
61%
Under 8.0
39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.9
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIN +0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
MIN By 1-2 runs
16.6%
MIN By 3-4 runs
10.9%
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.5%
MIL By 3-4 runs
16.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
4.1
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3.20
Milwaukee
5
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Minnesota
5
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3.20
Milwaukee
3
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Brewers
Win
58% Win Prob
C
Sim
Twins
Loss
70% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Twins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.9
C
Sim
Twins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.1
B
Sim
u8.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 9, 2026
MIN @ MIL
3 - 4
Aug 8, 2026
MIN @ MIL
3 - 4
Aug 7, 2026
MIN @ MIL
8 - 6
May 17, 2026
MIL @ MIN
4 - 5
May 16, 2026
MIL @ MIN
2 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota
MIN
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
162
Games Played
162
4.56
Runs / Game
▲
5.14
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.341
.403
Slugging (SLG)
.403
.720
OPS
▲
.743
187
▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+44.9% more
Milwaukee: 9.4
vs
Minnesota: 6.5
Runs per Game (Season)
+12.7% more
Milwaukee: 5.1
vs
Minnesota: 4.6
On-Base Pct (Season)
+2.4%
Milwaukee: 34.1%
vs
Minnesota: 31.7%
OPS (Season)
+2.3%
Milwaukee: 74.3%
vs
Minnesota: 72.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
4.1
3
MIL Score
5.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.5 / 8.5
8.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.4
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.4 / 6.5
6.0 / 14.0
Total Bases
12.6 / 14.2
9.0 / 9.0
Walks
4.2 / 3.9
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +129 / -156
→
+128 / -139
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
MIN
MIL
MIN
ML
62%
101-61
52%
84-78
52%
84-78
50%
80-81
ATS
58%
94-68
59%
95-67
48%
78-84
59%
95-66
TTL
40%
62-92-8
51%
78-75-9
50%
77-77-8
53%
80-72-9
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