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CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

68-50  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Aug 8 • 7:10 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

49-69  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Clay Holmes
STARTING PITCHER

Clay Holmes

#25 | Starting Pitcher
@
Seth Lugo
STARTING PITCHER

Seth Lugo

#67 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Clay Holmes 4-4 2.39 1.10 52.2 45
Seth Lugo 4-7 4.41 1.39 128.2 99
4-4 W-L 4-7
2.39 Ldr ERA 4.41
1.10 Ldr WHIP 1.39
52.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 128.2
45 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 99
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
83%
📊
ROYALS
17%
▲ Edge: +22.80% (CHC)
CUBS 60% Book Odds: -148
ROYALS 42% Book Odds: +136
Book Implied: 59.70% / 42.40%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
Over 9.0 47%
Under 9.0 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.2
CHICAGO
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.7 points (Chicago)
CubsCHC (-1.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+1.5)
Chicago Cubs (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

85.3%

Royals Cover

14.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHC -4.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

CHC By 1-2 runs

15.8%

CHC By 3-4 runs

19.4%

KC By 1-2 runs

7.3%

KC By 3-4 runs

3.2%

AI Model Projected Score
6.6
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5.20
2.4
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
4
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5.20
6
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cubs Loss
83% Win Prob
A
Sim Royals Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Cubs (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -4.2
A
Sim Royals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u9.0 Push
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o9.0 Push
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 9, 2026 CHC @ KC 10 - 2
Aug 8, 2026 CHC @ KC 3 - 6
Aug 7, 2026 CHC @ KC 6 - 4
Jul 23, 2025 KC @ CHC 8 - 4
Jul 22, 2025 KC @ CHC 0 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
Kansas City KC
2
Games Played
▲ 162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.26
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .316
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.374
OPS
▲ .718
0
Home Runs
▲ 170
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +48.9% more
Chicago: 1.4 vs Kansas City: 0.7
Strikeouts (L5) +38.3% more
Chicago: 8.1 vs Kansas City: 5.0
Total Bases (L5) +19.2% more
Chicago: 14.1 vs Kansas City: 11.4
Hits (L5) +18.9% more
Chicago: 8.8 vs Kansas City: 7.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 6.6 3
KC Score 2.4 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.1 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.1 / 8.8 10.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 1.4 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 5.0 / 8.1 10.0 / 1.0
Total Bases 11.4 / 14.1 19.0 / 13.0
Walks 3.0 / 2.9 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -171 / +141 → -148 / +136 ↑
81%TICKETS19%
95%MONEY5%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
81%TICKETS19%
80%MONEY20%
Total (O/U)
Open: 9.5 → 9 ↓
65%TICKETS35%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
KC Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
CHC
KC
CHC
ML
55% 89-72
58% 93-68
56% 90-70
51% 82-79
ATS
57% 91-70
61% 97-63-1
58% 93-67
47% 75-85-1
TTL
58% 90-64-7
52% 81-74-6
54% 83-70-7
46% 72-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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