CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
56-60 | Road
2
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
58-61 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Chase Burns
#26 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Alvarez
#54 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Burns | 13-1 | 2.35 | 1.10 | 118.2 | 137 |
| Andrew Alvarez | 2-3 | 3.94 | 1.45 | 64.0 | 63 |
13-1
W-L
2-3
2.35 Ldr
ERA
3.94
1.10 Ldr
WHIP
1.45
118.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
64.0
137 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
63
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
64%
NATIONALS
36%
▲ Edge: +8% (CIN)
REDS
56%
Book Odds: -129
NATIONALS
46%
Book Odds: +119
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.7 (Over)
Over 8.5
58%
Under 8.5
42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
CIN By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CIN By 3-4 runs
17.7%
WSH By 1-2 runs
14.7%
WSH By 3-4 runs
8.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
5.4
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 5
Washington
3.8
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
3
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 5
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Reds
Loss
64% Win Prob
B
Sim
Nationals
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Reds (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.6
D
Sim
Nationals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.2
C
Sim
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 9, 2026
CIN @ WSH
1 - 7
Aug 8, 2026
CIN @ WSH
2 - 8
Aug 7, 2026
CIN @ WSH
3 - 5
May 14, 2026
WSH @ CIN
1 - 15
May 13, 2026
WSH @ CIN
8 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Washington
WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.321
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.423
.699
OPS
▲
.744
213
▲
Home Runs
210
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+52.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.7
vs
Washington: 0.2
Home Runs (L5)
+46.0% more
Cincinnati: 2.4
vs
Washington: 1.3
Strikeouts (L5)
+27.3% more
Cincinnati: 10.1
vs
Washington: 7.3
Total Bases (L5)
+16.5% more
Cincinnati: 15.7
vs
Washington: 13.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
5.4
2
WSH Score
3.8
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.3 / 7.1
10.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 2.4
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.3 / 10.1
6.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
13.1 / 15.7
14.0 / 8.0
Walks
3.3 / 3.6
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -142 / +118
→
-129 / +119
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
CIN
WSH
CIN
ML
57%
92-69
55%
88-71
54%
87-74
49%
79-81
ATS
58%
93-68
54%
86-73
57%
91-70
50%
80-80
TTL
50%
77-78-6
53%
81-73-5
42%
65-90-6
54%
83-72-5
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