NEW YORK
METSNYM
51-67 | Road
0
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
58-61 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Robert Stock
#89 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Bubba Chandler
#36 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Stock | 0-1 | 1.80 | 0.60 | 5.0 | 4 |
| Bubba Chandler | 4-8 | 4.49 | 1.41 | 110.1 | 98 |
0-1
W-L
4-8
1.80 Ldr
ERA
4.49
0.60 Ldr
WHIP
1.41
5.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 110.1
4
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 98
AI Model Win Probability
METS
73%
PIRATES
27%
▲ Edge: +24.40% (NYM)
METS
49%
Book Odds: +104
PIRATES
53%
Book Odds: -113
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
Over 9.0
49%
Under 9.0
51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.6
NEW YORK
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.1 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM -2.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.0%
NYM By 3-4 runs
19.3%
PIT By 1-2 runs
11.8%
PIT By 3-4 runs
6.3%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
5.8
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.80
Pittsburgh
3.2
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 5.20
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.80
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 5.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mets
Loss
73% Win Prob
A
Sim
Pirates
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Mets (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.6
A
Sim
Pirates (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u9.0
Push
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u9.0
Push
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 9, 2026
NYM @ PIT
11 - 1
Aug 8, 2026
NYM @ PIT
0 - 9
Aug 7, 2026
NYM @ PIT
6 - 4
Mar 29, 2026
PIT @ NYM
4 - 3
Mar 28, 2026
PIT @ NYM
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.705
OPS
▲
.734
204
▲
Home Runs
186
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+66.8% more
New York: 1.9
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.6
Total Bases (L5)
+43.4% more
New York: 18.9
vs
Pittsburgh: 10.7
Hits (L5)
+27.8% more
New York: 10.7
vs
Pittsburgh: 7.7
Errors (L5)
+22.0% more
New York: 0.5
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
5.8
0
PIT Score
3.2
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.5
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.7 / 10.7
12.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.9
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.5 / 9.9
9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
10.7 / 18.9
19.0 / 3.0
Walks
3.6 / 3.1
1.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +118 / -142
→
+104 / -113
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
9
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
NYM
PIT
NYM
ML
52%
82-77
50%
79-80
52%
85-78
48%
76-83
ATS
54%
86-73
58%
93-66
50%
81-82
49%
78-81
TTL
47%
72-81-6
55%
80-66-13
50%
79-78-6
51%
74-72-13
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