LOS ANGELES
ANGELSLAA
45-72 | Road
0
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
59-59 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Walbert Urena
#57 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Sandy Alcantara
#22 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walbert Urena | 7-7 | 2.54 | 1.25 | 99.1 | 95 |
| Sandy Alcantara | 12-6 | 3.68 | 1.20 | 156.2 | 120 |
7-7
W-L
12-6
2.54 Ldr
ERA
3.68
1.25
WHIP
Ldr 1.20
99.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 156.2
95
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 120
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
61%
MARLINS
39%
▲ Edge: +18.40% (LAA)
ANGELS
43%
Book Odds: +135
MARLINS
60%
Book Odds: -147
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.5
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
Over 7.5
48%
Under 7.5
52%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.6 points (Los Angeles)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAA -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)
LAA By 1-2 runs
19.6%
LAA By 3-4 runs
16.6%
MIA By 1-2 runs
16.1%
MIA By 3-4 runs
10.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Los Angeles
4.3
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 3
Miami
3.2
MIAMI
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
Los Angeles
3
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 3
Miami
5
MIAMI
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Angels
Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Sim
Marlins
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Angels (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.1
A
Sim
Marlins (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u7.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.5
D
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 9, 2026
LAA @ MIA
3 - 12
Aug 8, 2026
LAA @ MIA
0 - 7
Aug 7, 2026
LAA @ MIA
4 - 3
May 25, 2025
MIA @ LAA
3 - 0
May 24, 2025
MIA @ LAA
6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles
LAA
vs
Miami
MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.04
Runs / Game
▲
4.41
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.369
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.679
OPS
▲
.727
154
Home Runs
▲
168
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+75.9% more
Los Angeles: 1.2
vs
Miami: 0.3
Strikeouts (L5)
+40.3% more
Los Angeles: 9.8
vs
Miami: 5.8
Errors (L5)
+92.0% more
Miami: 1.2
vs
Los Angeles: 0.3
Hits (L5)
+25.5% more
Miami: 8.5
vs
Los Angeles: 6.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LAA Score
4.3
0
MIA Score
3.2
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.2 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.5 / 6.7
10.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.3 / 1.2
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
5.8 / 9.8
11.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
11.2 / 11.2
15.0 / 6.0
Walks
3.7 / 3.7
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +142 / -173
→
+135 / -147
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
7.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0
(38.3%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
LAA
MIA
LAA
ML
48%
78-84
59%
96-66
55%
88-72
55%
89-73
ATS
56%
91-71
60%
97-65
54%
86-74
51%
82-80
TTL
56%
88-69-5
53%
83-74-5
53%
82-73-5
52%
82-75-5
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