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DETROIT

TIGERSDET

56-60  |  Road

2
FINAL
Fri, Aug 7 • 10:15 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

49-67  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Keider Montero
STARTING PITCHER

Keider Montero

#54 | Starting Pitcher
@
JT Brubaker
STARTING PITCHER

JT Brubaker

#34 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Keider Montero 8-6 3.17 1.00 116.1 81
JT Brubaker 0-0 3.17 1.17 54.0 36
8-6 W-L 0-0
3.17 ERA 3.17
1.00 Ldr WHIP 1.17
116.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 54.0
81 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 36
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
53%
📊
GIANTS
47%
▲ Edge: +3% (SF)
TIGERS 58% Book Odds: -140
GIANTS 44% Book Odds: +129
Book Implied: 58.30% / 43.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.4
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 (Over)
Over 8.5 67%
Under 8.5 33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.2
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (San Francisco)
TigersDET (-1.5) 0 GiantsSF (+1.5)
San Francisco Giants (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

48.0%

Giants Cover

52.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SF +0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

DET By 1-2 runs

18.7%

DET By 3-4 runs

14.1%

SF By 1-2 runs

18.1%

SF By 3-4 runs

13.0%

AI Model Projected Score
5.3
DETROIT
Book Implied: 5
5.1
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3.50
Simulated Score
3
DETROIT
Book Implied: 5
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tigers Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim Giants Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Giants (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +0.2
B
Sim Giants (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.4
A
Sim u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 9, 2026 DET @ SF 3 - 1
Aug 8, 2026 DET @ SF 8 - 0
Aug 7, 2026 DET @ SF 2 - 5
May 28, 2025 SF @ DET 3 - 4
May 27, 2025 SF @ DET 1 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit DET
vs
San Francisco SF
162
Games Played
162
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.320 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.400
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.720 ▲
OPS
.706
181 ▲
Home Runs
178
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +52.4% more
Detroit: 1.9 vs San Francisco: 0.9
Total Bases (L5) +40.8% more
Detroit: 19.4 vs San Francisco: 11.5
Hits (L5) +38.2% more
Detroit: 12.0 vs San Francisco: 7.4
Strikeouts (L5) +15.8% more
Detroit: 9.7 vs San Francisco: 8.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 5.3 2
SF Score 5.1 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.1 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.4 / 12.0 5.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.9 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.2 / 9.7 7.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 11.5 / 19.4 11.0 / 11.0
Walks 3.7 / 3.9 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -122 / +101 → -140 / +129 ↓
76%TICKETS24%
82%MONEY18%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
81%TICKETS19%
88%MONEY12%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8.5
73%TICKETS27%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET Advantage
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
DET
SF
DET
ML
49% 79-81
54% 86-73
53% 85-75
54% 87-73
ATS
62% 100-60
64% 101-58
52% 83-77
57% 91-69
TTL
55% 82-68-10
46% 69-81-9
46% 68-81-11
46% 69-81-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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