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TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

69-46  |  Road

2
FINAL
Fri, Aug 7 • 9:45 PM ET
T-Mobile Park
View Odds Details →

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

56-61  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Drew Rasmussen
STARTING PITCHER

Drew Rasmussen

#57 | Starting Pitcher
@
Logan Gilbert
STARTING PITCHER

Logan Gilbert

#36 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Drew Rasmussen 10-5 2.91 0.93 117.1 122
Logan Gilbert 8-6 3.46 0.99 132.2 139
10-5 W-L 8-6
2.91 Ldr ERA 3.46
0.93 Ldr WHIP 0.99
117.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 132.2
122 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 139
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
53%
📊
MARINERS
47%
▲ Edge: +4.40% (TB)
RAYS 49% Book Odds: +105
MARINERS 53% Book Odds: -113
Book Implied: 48.80% / 53.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.3
Projected
Book Total
6.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 (Over)
Over 6.5 55%
Under 6.5 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (Tampa Bay)
RaysTB (+1.5) 0 MarinersSEA (-1.5)
Tampa Bay Rays (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rays Cover

53.0%

Mariners Cover

47.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TB -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

TB By 1-2 runs

18.9%

TB By 3-4 runs

14.4%

SEA By 1-2 runs

17.9%

SEA By 3-4 runs

12.7%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 2.50
3.5
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 4
Simulated Score
2
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 2.50
5
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 4
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rays Win
53% Win Prob
D
Sim Mariners Loss
77% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rays (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -0.3
A
Sim Mariners (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.3
C
Sim o6.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 9, 2026 TB @ SEA 4 - 1
Aug 8, 2026 TB @ SEA 3 - 2
Aug 7, 2026 TB @ SEA 2 - 1
Jul 12, 2026 SEA @ TB 8 - 2
Jul 11, 2026 SEA @ TB 1 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay TB
vs
Seattle SEA
162
Games Played
162
4.54 ▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.258 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.728 ▲
OPS
.693
169
Home Runs
▲ 182
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +40.8% more
Tampa Bay: 1.3 vs Seattle: 0.7
Total Bases (L5) +32.2% more
Tampa Bay: 15.0 vs Seattle: 10.2
Strikeouts (L5) +20.3% more
Tampa Bay: 8.3 vs Seattle: 6.6
Hits (L5) +18.4% more
Tampa Bay: 8.8 vs Seattle: 7.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 3.8 2
SEA Score 3.5 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.2 / 8.8 4.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 1.3 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 6.6 / 8.3 12.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 10.2 / 15.0 7.0 / 13.0
Walks 3.1 / 2.5 2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +104 / -114 → +105 / -113
63%TICKETS37%
79%MONEY21%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
64%TICKETS36%
86%MONEY14%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7 → 6.5 ↓
89%TICKETS11%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
TB
SEA
TB
ML
50% 81-81
58% 95-68
52% 85-77
58% 95-68
ATS
60% 98-64
60% 97-66
59% 95-67
55% 90-73
TTL
56% 85-67-10
47% 73-81-9
53% 81-71-10
51% 78-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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