LOS ANGELES
DODGERSLAD
69-47 | Road
3
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
62-55 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Roki Sasaki
#11 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Merrill Kelly
#29 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roki Sasaki | 5-5 | 4.64 | 1.30 | 99.0 | 101 |
| Merrill Kelly | 8-9 | 5.04 | 1.49 | 114.1 | 76 |
5-5
W-L
8-9
4.64 Ldr
ERA
5.04
1.30 Ldr
WHIP
1.49
99.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 114.1
101 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
76
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
54%
DIAMONDBACKS
46%
▲ Edge: +7% (ARI)
DODGERS
63%
Book Odds: -168
DIAMONDBACKS
39%
Book Odds: +154
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.4
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.4 (Over)
Over 9.0
72%
Under 9.0
28%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.4
ARIZONA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ARI +0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
LAD By 1-2 runs
19.0%
LAD By 3-4 runs
14.7%
ARI By 1-2 runs
17.7%
ARI By 3-4 runs
12.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Los Angeles
5.9
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 5.20
Arizona
5.5
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
Los Angeles
6
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 5.20
Arizona
3
ARIZONA
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Dodgers
Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Sim
Dodgers
Loss
77% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.4
B
Sim
Dodgers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 11.4
A
Sim
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 9, 2026
LAD @ ARI
2 - 4
Aug 8, 2026
LAD @ ARI
2 - 1
Aug 7, 2026
LAD @ ARI
3 - 4
Jul 12, 2026
ARI @ LAD
5 - 3
Jul 11, 2026
ARI @ LAD
9 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles
LAD
vs
Arizona
ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.94
▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.257
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.338
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.424
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.762
▲
OPS
.720
204
▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+54.9% more
Los Angeles: 1.8
vs
Arizona: 0.8
Errors (L5)
+44.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.7
vs
Arizona: 0.3
Home Runs (Season)
+18.6% more
Los Angeles: 204.0
vs
Arizona: 166.0
Total Bases (L5)
+12.4% more
Los Angeles: 15.6
vs
Arizona: 13.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LAD Score
5.9
3
ARI Score
5.5
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.3 / 9.9
7.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.8
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.8 / 5.7
7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
13.7 / 15.6
18.0 / 10.0
Walks
2.7 / 1.4
4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -175 / +144
→
-168 / +154
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 9
→
9
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD
Advantage
103-63-0
(62.1%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3%
Total +/-: 0.0
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
LAD
ARI
LAD
ML
54%
87-74
56%
92-73
54%
86-74
48%
79-87
ATS
57%
91-70
59%
98-67
56%
89-71
43%
72-94
TTL
52%
80-73-8
48%
77-82-6
49%
73-77-9
44%
70-90-6
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