Home / MLB Projections MLB / Rockies @ Cardinals COL @ STL

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

45-71  |  Road

2
FINAL
Fri, Aug 7 • 8:15 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

58-58  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Ryan Feltner
STARTING PITCHER

Ryan Feltner

#18 | Starting Pitcher
@
Kyle Leahy
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Leahy

#62 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Ryan Feltner 4-5 5.75 1.46 76.2 57
Kyle Leahy 7-4 3.44 1.33 107.1 91
4-5 W-L 7-4
5.75 ERA Ldr 3.44
1.46 WHIP Ldr 1.33
76.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 107.1
57 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 91
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
42%
📊
CARDINALS
58%
▲ Edge: +2.50% (COL)
ROCKIES 40% Book Odds: +150
CARDINALS 62% Book Odds: -164
Book Implied: 40% / 62.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.4 (Under)
Over 8.5 47%
Under 8.5 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.9
COLORADO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Colorado)
RockiesCOL (+1.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (-1.5)
Colorado Rockies (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockies Cover

58.9%

Cardinals Cover

41.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around COL +0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)

COL By 1-2 runs

16.6%

COL By 3-4 runs

10.9%

STL By 1-2 runs

19.5%

STL By 3-4 runs

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
3.6
COLORADO
Book Implied: 3.50
4.5
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
3
COLORADO
Book Implied: 3.50
6
ST. LOUIS
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cardinals Win
58% Win Prob
C
Sim Cardinals Win
77% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rockies (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +0.9
C
Sim Cardinals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.1
D
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 STL @ COL 10 - 8
Sep 5, 2026 STL @ COL 7 - 10
Sep 4, 2026 STL @ COL 7 - 6
Aug 9, 2026 COL @ STL 4 - 7
Aug 8, 2026 COL @ STL 8 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado COL
vs
St. Louis STL
162
Games Played
162
4.64 ▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.254 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.322 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.417 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.739 ▲
OPS
.691
180 ▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +45.7% more
St. Louis: 3.6 vs Colorado: 2.5
Errors (L5) +40.0% more
St. Louis: 0.8 vs Colorado: 0.4
Strikeouts (L5) +20.8% more
St. Louis: 8.7 vs Colorado: 7.2
Home Runs (L5) +28.8% more
Colorado: 1.1 vs St. Louis: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
COL Score 3.6 2
STL Score 4.5 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.4 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.7 / 9.5 4.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.1 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.7 / 7.2 10.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 13.5 / 15.8 8.0 / 13.0
Walks 3.6 / 2.5 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +129 / -156 → +150 / -164 ↑
17%TICKETS83%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
10%TICKETS90%
7%MONEY93%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8.5
73%TICKETS27%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
COL
STL
COL
ML
53% 85-74
60% 97-64
52% 84-77
55% 88-73
ATS
56% 89-70
60% 97-64
53% 85-76
52% 83-78
TTL
46% 68-81-10
60% 93-62-6
50% 76-75-10
50% 77-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
si 1 hour, 27 minutes ago
Nick Martinez's Journey from Ejection at Yankee Stadium to ALCS …
yourvalley_net 1 day, 13 hours ago
Cardinals Face Critical Contract Calls on Jordan Walker, Alec Bu…
si 3 days, 1 hour ago
Phillies' Wild Card Collapse: Bullpen Blunders, Painter's Promis…
yahoo 3 days, 7 hours ago
Giants Defy Odds: Harbaugh Applauds Resilience After Dramatic Wi…
sny 4 days, 1 hour ago