BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
56-60 | Road
1
TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
58-58 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Shane Baz
#34 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Nathan Eovaldi
#17 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Baz | 4-10 | 3.86 | 1.37 | 128.1 | 111 |
| Nathan Eovaldi | 10-9 | 4.31 | 1.21 | 127.1 | 135 |
4-10
W-L
10-9
3.86 Ldr
ERA
4.31
1.37
WHIP
Ldr 1.21
128.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
127.1
111
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 135
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
47%
RANGERS
53%
▲ Edge: +3.80% (BAL)
ORIOLES
44%
Book Odds: +130
RANGERS
59%
Book Odds: -141
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.8 (Over)
Over 7.5
67%
Under 7.5
33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.3
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL +0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
BAL By 1-2 runs
17.9%
BAL By 3-4 runs
12.7%
TEX By 1-2 runs
18.9%
TEX By 3-4 runs
14.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
4.5
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 3
Texas
4.8
TEXAS
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
Baltimore
3
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 3
Texas
5
TEXAS
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rangers
Win
53% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rangers
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Orioles (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.3
B
Sim
Rangers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.3
A
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 9, 2026
BAL @ TEX
10 - 5
Aug 8, 2026
BAL @ TEX
1 - 5
Aug 7, 2026
BAL @ TEX
1 - 2
Apr 1, 2026
TEX @ BAL
3 - 8
Mar 31, 2026
TEX @ BAL
8 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Texas
TEX
161
Games Played
▲
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.242
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.396
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.711
OPS
▲
.713
199
▲
Home Runs
183
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+74.9% more
Texas: 8.4
vs
Baltimore: 4.8
Total Bases (L5)
+43.6% more
Texas: 13.4
vs
Baltimore: 9.4
Errors (L5)
+29.0% more
Texas: 0.8
vs
Baltimore: 0.5
Walks (L5)
+14.4% more
Texas: 4.0
vs
Baltimore: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
4.5
1
TEX Score
4.8
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.4 / 4.8
3.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.3
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.5 / 8.8
6.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
13.4 / 9.4
6.0 / 9.0
Walks
4.0 / 3.5
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +119 / -143
→
+130 / -141
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
7.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
TEX
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
BAL
TEX
BAL
ML
53%
86-76
53%
83-73
57%
91-70
57%
90-69
ATS
57%
92-70
61%
95-60-1
61%
98-63
57%
90-68-1
TTL
53%
78-70-14
54%
81-70-5
55%
81-66-14
51%
78-75-6
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