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CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

68-49  |  Road

6
FINAL
Fri, Aug 7 • 8:10 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

48-69  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Kevin Gausman
STARTING PITCHER

Kevin Gausman

#12 | Starting Pitcher
@
Daniel Lynch IV
STARTING PITCHER

Daniel Lynch IV

#41 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kevin Gausman 5-10 4.38 1.29 127.1 127
Daniel Lynch IV 4-2 1.96 0.93 46.0 35
5-10 W-L 4-2
4.38 ERA Ldr 1.96
1.29 WHIP Ldr 0.93
127.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 46.0
127 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 35
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
59%
📊
ROYALS
41%
▲ Edge: +0.60% (KC)
CUBS 62% Book Odds: -162
ROYALS 40% Book Odds: +149
Book Implied: 61.80% / 40.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.1
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 (Over)
Over 9.0 54%
Under 9.0 46%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.1
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Kansas City)
CubsCHC (-1.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+1.5)
Kansas City Royals (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

39.2%

Royals Cover

60.8%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around KC +1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CHC By 3-4 runs

16.6%

KC By 1-2 runs

16.1%

KC By 3-4 runs

10.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5.1
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5.20
4
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3.80
Simulated Score
4
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5.20
6
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 3.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cubs Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim Royals Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Royals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.1
C
Sim Royals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o9.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.1
D
Sim o9.0 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 9, 2026 CHC @ KC 10 - 2
Aug 8, 2026 CHC @ KC 3 - 6
Aug 7, 2026 CHC @ KC 6 - 4
Jul 23, 2025 KC @ CHC 8 - 4
Jul 22, 2025 KC @ CHC 0 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
Kansas City KC
2
Games Played
▲ 162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.26
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .316
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.374
OPS
▲ .718
0
Home Runs
▲ 170
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +64.5% more
Chicago: 1.6 vs Kansas City: 0.6
Strikeouts (L5) +42.3% more
Chicago: 8.7 vs Kansas City: 5.0
Walks (L5) +41.6% more
Chicago: 3.3 vs Kansas City: 1.9
Total Bases (L5) +30.1% more
Chicago: 15.2 vs Kansas City: 10.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 5.1 6
KC Score 4.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.2 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.2 / 8.7 7.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 1.6 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 5.0 / 8.7 5.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 10.6 / 15.2 13.0 / 12.0
Walks 1.9 / 3.3 5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -167 / +138 → -162 / +149 ↓
82%TICKETS18%
91%MONEY9%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
97%TICKETS3%
98%MONEY2%
Total (O/U)
Open: 9.5 → 9 ↓
62%TICKETS38%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
KC Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
CHC
KC
CHC
ML
55% 89-72
58% 93-68
56% 90-70
51% 82-79
ATS
57% 91-70
61% 97-63-1
58% 93-67
47% 75-85-1
TTL
58% 90-64-7
52% 81-74-6
54% 83-70-7
46% 72-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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