MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
58-59 | Road
8
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
72-44 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Zebby Matthews
#52 | Starting Pitcher@
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Shane Drohan
#55 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zebby Matthews | 4-8 | 5.22 | 1.31 | 81.0 | 69 |
| Shane Drohan | 6-4 | 3.48 | 1.17 | 88.0 | 89 |
4-8
W-L
6-4
5.22
ERA
Ldr 3.48
1.31
WHIP
Ldr 1.17
81.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 88.0
69
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 89
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
36%
BREWERS
64%
▲ Edge: +0.70% (MIL)
TWINS
39%
Book Odds: +155
BREWERS
63%
Book Odds: -169
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.9
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.9 (Over)
Over 8.0
68%
Under 8.0
32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.5
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIN +1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
MIN By 1-2 runs
15.0%
MIN By 3-4 runs
9.2%
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
MIL By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
4.2
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3.20
Milwaukee
5.7
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Minnesota
3
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3.20
Milwaukee
5
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Brewers
Loss
64% Win Prob
B
Sim
Brewers
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Twins (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.5
D
Sim
Brewers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.9
A
Sim
u8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 9, 2026
MIN @ MIL
3 - 4
Aug 8, 2026
MIN @ MIL
3 - 4
Aug 7, 2026
MIN @ MIL
8 - 6
May 17, 2026
MIL @ MIN
4 - 5
May 16, 2026
MIL @ MIN
2 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota
MIN
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
162
Games Played
162
4.56
Runs / Game
▲
5.14
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.341
.403
Slugging (SLG)
.403
.720
OPS
▲
.743
187
▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+54.1% more
Milwaukee: 9.6
vs
Minnesota: 6.3
Home Runs (L5)
+21.3% more
Milwaukee: 1.3
vs
Minnesota: 1.1
Total Bases (L5)
+15.4% more
Milwaukee: 12.0
vs
Minnesota: 10.4
Runs per Game (Season)
+12.7% more
Milwaukee: 5.1
vs
Minnesota: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
4.2
8
MIL Score
5.7
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.3
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
6.8 / 6.2
9.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 1.1
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.6 / 6.3
9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
12.0 / 10.4
14.0 / 22.0
Walks
3.7 / 3.8
5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +153 / -186
→
+155 / -169
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
MIN
MIL
MIN
ML
62%
101-61
52%
84-78
52%
84-78
50%
80-81
ATS
58%
94-68
59%
95-67
48%
78-84
59%
95-66
TTL
40%
62-92-8
51%
78-75-9
50%
77-77-8
53%
80-72-9
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