CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
58-59 | Road
8
CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
59-56 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Parker Messick
#77 | SP@
STARTING PITCHER
Noah Schultz
#22 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Messick | 8-6 | 2.57 | 1.06 | 129.2 | 128 |
| Noah Schultz | 3-8 | 5.82 | 1.38 | 65.0 | 58 |
8-6
W-L
3-8
2.57 Ldr
ERA
5.82
1.06 Ldr
WHIP
1.38
129.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
65.0
128 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
58
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
50%
WHITE SOX
50%
▲ Edge: +6.40% (CHW)
GUARDIANS
59%
Book Odds: -141
WHITE SOX
44%
Book Odds: +130
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 7.5
59%
Under 7.5
41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.1
CHICAGO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHW +0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)
CLE By 1-2 runs
18.6%
CLE By 3-4 runs
13.9%
CHW By 1-2 runs
18.3%
CHW By 3-4 runs
13.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
4.3
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4.50
Chicago
4.2
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 3
Simulated Score
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 4.50
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 3
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Guardians
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
White Sox
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
White Sox (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +0.1
B
Sim
White Sox (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.5
B
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 7, 2026
CLE @ CHW
9 - 3
Oct 5, 2026
CHW @ CLE
4 - 3
Oct 3, 2026
CHW @ CLE
3 - 0
Sep 16, 2026
CHW @ CLE
3 - 6
Sep 15, 2026
CHW @ CLE
6 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Chicago
CHW
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.324
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.415
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.412
.696
OPS
▲
.826
162
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+99.4% more
Cleveland: 162.0
vs
Chicago: 1.0
Walks (L5)
+13.2% more
Cleveland: 5.4
vs
Chicago: 4.7
Hits (L5)
+10.8% more
Cleveland: 9.3
vs
Chicago: 8.3
Home Runs (L5)
+60.0% more
Chicago: 1.2
vs
Cleveland: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
4.3
8
CHW Score
4.2
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.1 / 1.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.3 / 9.3
8.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 0.6
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.9 / 10.1
12.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
13.1 / 12.1
15.0 / 16.0
Walks
4.7 / 5.4
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -118 / +107
→
-141 / +130
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
7.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
CLE
CHW
CLE
ML
49%
81-86
54%
87-74
56%
94-73
49%
80-82
ATS
59%
99-68
58%
93-68
56%
93-74
59%
95-67
TTL
58%
96-69-2
55%
88-71-2
51%
84-81-2
43%
69-90-2
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