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LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

45-71  |  Road

4
FINAL
Fri, Aug 7 • 7:10 PM ET
loanDepot park
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

58-59  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
George Klassen
STARTING PITCHER

George Klassen

#58 | Starting Pitcher
@
Tyler Phillips
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Phillips

#30 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
George Klassen 0-1 11.57 3.64 4.2 6
Tyler Phillips 3-5 3.53 1.35 89.1 66
0-1 W-L 3-5
11.57 ERA Ldr 3.53
3.64 WHIP Ldr 1.35
4.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 89.1
6 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 66
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
29%
📊
MARLINS
71%
▲ Edge: +12% (MIA)
ANGELS 44% Book Odds: +130
MARLINS 59% Book Odds: -141
Book Implied: 43.50% / 58.50%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.1
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 (Over)
Over 9.0 57%
Under 9.0 43%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.3
MIAMI
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Miami)
AngelsLAA (+1.5) 0 MarlinsMIA (-1.5)
Miami Marlins (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Angels Cover

28.3%

Marlins Cover

71.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIA -2.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

LAA By 1-2 runs

12.7%

LAA By 3-4 runs

7.1%

MIA By 1-2 runs

19.4%

MIA By 3-4 runs

18.9%

AI Model Projected Score
3.4
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 3.80
5.7
MIAMI
Book Implied: 5.20
Simulated Score
3
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 3.80
6
MIAMI
Book Implied: 5.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Marlins Loss
71% Win Prob
A
Sim Marlins Loss
77% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Marlins (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.3
C
Sim Marlins (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.1
C
Sim u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 9, 2026 LAA @ MIA 3 - 12
Aug 8, 2026 LAA @ MIA 0 - 7
Aug 7, 2026 LAA @ MIA 4 - 3
May 25, 2025 MIA @ LAA 3 - 0
May 24, 2025 MIA @ LAA 6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAA
vs
Miami MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.04
Runs / Game
▲ 4.41
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .249
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.369
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .400
.679
OPS
▲ .727
154
Home Runs
▲ 168
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +88.0% more
Miami: 1.3 vs Los Angeles: 0.4
Runs per Game (Season) +9.2% more
Miami: 4.4 vs Los Angeles: 4.0
Home Runs (Season) +9.1% more
Miami: 168.0 vs Los Angeles: 154.0
OPS (Season) +4.8%
Miami: 72.7% vs Los Angeles: 67.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAA Score 3.4 4
MIA Score 5.7 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.3 / 0.4 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.7 / 7.1 12.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.4 / 0.7 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 5.8 / 10.2 6.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 9.8 / 10.8 14.0 / 12.0
Walks 3.1 / 3.6 5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +141 / -171 → +130 / -141 ↓
19%TICKETS81%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
18%TICKETS82%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: 9 → 9
63%TICKETS37%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
MIA Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
MIA Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
LAA
MIA
LAA
ML
48% 78-84
59% 96-66
55% 88-72
55% 89-73
ATS
56% 91-71
60% 97-65
54% 86-74
51% 82-80
TTL
56% 88-69-5
53% 83-74-5
53% 82-73-5
52% 82-75-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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