ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
70-46 | Road
2
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
65-51 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Mahle
#54 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Max Fried
#54 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Mahle | 3-9 | 5.13 | 1.39 | 94.2 | 89 |
| Max Fried | 4-3 | 3.12 | 0.99 | 75.0 | 68 |
3-9
W-L
4-3
5.13
ERA
Ldr 3.12
1.39
WHIP
Ldr 0.99
94.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
75.0
89 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
68
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
30%
YANKEES
70%
▲ Edge: +15.30% (NYY)
BRAVES
47%
Book Odds: +113
YANKEES
55%
Book Odds: -123
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.4 (Over)
Over 8.0
54%
Under 8.0
46%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.4
NEW YORK
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -2.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
ATL By 1-2 runs
12.4%
ATL By 3-4 runs
6.8%
NYY By 1-2 runs
19.3%
NYY By 3-4 runs
19.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
3
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 3.20
New York
5.4
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Atlanta
3
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 3.20
New York
5
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Yankees
Win
70% Win Prob
A
Sim
Yankees
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Yankees (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.4
C
Sim
Yankees (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.4
C
Sim
u8.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 9, 2026
ATL @ NYY
2 - 1
Aug 8, 2026
ATL @ NYY
4 - 5
Aug 7, 2026
ATL @ NYY
2 - 3
Jul 20, 2025
NYY @ ATL
4 - 2
Jul 19, 2025
NYY @ ATL
12 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
New York
NYY
1
Games Played
1
5.00
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.324
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.433
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.757
OPS
▲
1.041
1
Home Runs
▲
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+80.0% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Atlanta: 5.0
Walks (L5)
+56.2% more
New York: 4.1
vs
Atlanta: 2.7
Slugging Pct (Season)
+16.1%
New York: 59.4%
vs
Atlanta: 43.3%
Batting Avg (Season)
+14.2%
New York: 37.5%
vs
Atlanta: 23.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
3.0
2
NYY Score
5.4
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 0.6
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
5.8 / 10.4
7.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 1.9
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.6 / 8.0
15.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
11.3 / 19.1
10.0 / 13.0
Walks
4.1 / 2.7
7.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -118 / -102
→
+113 / -123
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7
→
8
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
NYY
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
ATL
NYY
ATL
ML
47%
76-85
46%
77-90
52%
85-77
54%
90-78
ATS
59%
95-66
57%
96-71
53%
86-76
52%
87-81
TTL
53%
81-73-7
53%
83-73-11
53%
82-72-7
49%
76-80-11
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