CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
56-59 | Road
3
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
57-61 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Chase Petty
#61 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Cavalli
#24 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Petty | 1-2 | 4.50 | 1.23 | 30.0 | 14 |
| Cade Cavalli | 8-5 | 3.52 | 1.29 | 122.2 | 133 |
1-2
W-L
8-5
4.50
ERA
Ldr 3.52
1.23 Ldr
WHIP
1.29
30.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 122.2
14
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 133
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
37%
NATIONALS
63%
▲ Edge: +7.90% (WSH)
REDS
47%
Book Odds: +112
NATIONALS
55%
Book Odds: -121
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 8.5
52%
Under 8.5
48%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
CIN By 1-2 runs
15.3%
CIN By 3-4 runs
9.5%
WSH By 1-2 runs
19.7%
WSH By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
3.8
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.50
Washington
5.2
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 3.50
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nationals
Win
63% Win Prob
C
Sim
Reds
Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Reds (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim
Reds (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 9, 2026
CIN @ WSH
1 - 7
Aug 8, 2026
CIN @ WSH
2 - 8
Aug 7, 2026
CIN @ WSH
3 - 5
May 14, 2026
WSH @ CIN
1 - 15
May 13, 2026
WSH @ CIN
8 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Washington
WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.321
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.423
.699
OPS
▲
.744
213
▲
Home Runs
210
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+23.4% more
Washington: 5.1
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
OPS (Season)
+4.5%
Washington: 74.4%
vs
Cincinnati: 69.9%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+2.9%
Washington: 42.3%
vs
Cincinnati: 39.4%
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.7%
Washington: 24.6%
vs
Cincinnati: 22.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
3.8
3
WSH Score
5.2
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.5
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.4 / 7.1
7.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 2.1
2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
6.0 / 10.1
10.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
12.6 / 14.5
14.0 / 18.0
Walks
3.5 / 4.4
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -101 / -119
→
+112 / -121
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 9
→
8.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
CIN
WSH
CIN
ML
57%
92-69
55%
88-71
54%
87-74
49%
79-81
ATS
58%
93-68
54%
86-73
57%
91-70
50%
80-80
TTL
50%
77-78-6
53%
81-73-5
42%
65-90-6
54%
83-72-5
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