NEW YORK
METSNYM
51-66 | Road
6
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
57-61 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Zac Thornton
#49 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Carmen Mlodzinski
#50 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zac Thornton | 2-2 | 2.88 | 1.05 | 34.1 | 24 |
| Carmen Mlodzinski | 6-3 | 3.15 | 1.31 | 94.1 | 76 |
2-2
W-L
6-3
2.88 Ldr
ERA
3.15
1.05 Ldr
WHIP
1.31
34.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 94.1
24
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 76
AI Model Win Probability
METS
58%
PIRATES
42%
▲ Edge: +12.80% (NYM)
METS
45%
Book Odds: +122
PIRATES
57%
Book Odds: -132
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.1 (Under)
Over 8.5
45%
Under 8.5
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
NEW YORK
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.3 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.4%
NYM By 3-4 runs
15.8%
PIT By 1-2 runs
16.8%
PIT By 3-4 runs
11.2%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
4.6
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.50
Pittsburgh
3.8
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 3.50
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mets
Win
58% Win Prob
C
Sim
Pirates
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mets (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.8
A
Sim
Pirates (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.4
C
Sim
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 9, 2026
NYM @ PIT
11 - 1
Aug 8, 2026
NYM @ PIT
0 - 9
Aug 7, 2026
NYM @ PIT
6 - 4
Mar 29, 2026
PIT @ NYM
4 - 3
Mar 28, 2026
PIT @ NYM
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.705
OPS
▲
.734
204
▲
Home Runs
186
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+59.7% more
New York: 2.3
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.9
Total Bases (L5)
+57.7% more
New York: 21.3
vs
Pittsburgh: 9.0
Hits (L5)
+49.7% more
New York: 11.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 5.5
Errors (L5)
+33.0% more
New York: 0.8
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
4.6
6
PIT Score
3.8
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.8
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.5 / 11.0
12.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 2.3
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.7 / 11.4
4.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
9.0 / 21.3
14.0 / 14.0
Walks
3.4 / 3.1
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +128 / -142
→
+122 / -132
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8.5
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
NYM
PIT
NYM
ML
52%
82-77
50%
79-80
52%
85-78
48%
76-83
ATS
54%
86-73
58%
93-66
50%
81-82
49%
78-81
TTL
47%
72-81-6
55%
80-66-13
50%
79-78-6
51%
74-72-13
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