MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
57-59 | Road
4
KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
48-68 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bailey Ober
#17 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Michael Wacha
#52 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Ober | 7-3 | 4.45 | 1.23 | 87.0 | 63 |
| Michael Wacha | 5-8 | 3.51 | 1.16 | 138.1 | 111 |
7-3
W-L
5-8
4.45
ERA
Ldr 3.51
1.23
WHIP
Ldr 1.16
87.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 138.1
63
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 111
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
58%
ROYALS
42%
▲ Edge: +12.40% (MIN)
TWINS
46%
Book Odds: +119
ROYALS
56%
Book Odds: -129
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.7 (Under)
Over 8.5
39%
Under 8.5
61%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.3 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIN -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
MIN By 1-2 runs
19.4%
MIN By 3-4 runs
15.8%
KC By 1-2 runs
16.8%
KC By 3-4 runs
11.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
4.3
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3.50
Kansas City
3.5
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
Minnesota
4
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3.50
Kansas City
6
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Twins
Win
58% Win Prob
C
Sim
Royals
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Twins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.8
A
Sim
Royals (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.8
B
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 6, 2026
MIN @ KC
4 - 3
Aug 5, 2026
MIN @ KC
1 - 2
Aug 4, 2026
MIN @ KC
2 - 8
Jul 30, 2026
KC @ MIN
3 - 4
Jul 29, 2026
KC @ MIN
4 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota
MIN
vs
Kansas City
KC
162
Games Played
162
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.403
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.720
▲
OPS
.718
187
▲
Home Runs
170
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+26.1% more
Minnesota: 1.1
vs
Kansas City: 0.8
Strikeouts (L5)
+25.1% more
Minnesota: 7.4
vs
Kansas City: 5.5
Errors (L5)
+12.0% more
Minnesota: 0.5
vs
Kansas City: 0.4
Home Runs (Season)
+9.1% more
Minnesota: 187.0
vs
Kansas City: 170.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
4.3
4
KC Score
3.5
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.3 / 5.8
7.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.1
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
5.5 / 7.4
4.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
11.9 / 10.0
8.0 / 11.0
Walks
2.4 / 2.2
1.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -102 / -118
→
+119 / -129
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
↑
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
MIN
KC
MIN
ML
55%
89-72
52%
84-78
56%
90-70
50%
80-81
ATS
57%
91-70
59%
95-67
58%
93-67
59%
95-66
TTL
58%
90-64-7
51%
78-75-9
54%
83-70-7
53%
80-72-9
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