MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
58-58 | Road
3
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
70-45 | Home
11
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Janson Junk
#26 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Martin Perez
#33 | SP| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Janson Junk | 5-6 | 4.58 | 1.33 | 78.2 | 61 |
| Martin Perez | 7-6 | 3.24 | 1.17 | 97.1 | 75 |
5-6
W-L
7-6
4.58
ERA
Ldr 3.24
1.33
WHIP
Ldr 1.17
78.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 97.1
61
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 75
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
53%
BRAVES
47%
▲ Edge: +12.70% (MIA)
MARLINS
40%
Book Odds: +151
BRAVES
62%
Book Odds: -165
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.9
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.1 (Under)
Over 9.0
49%
Under 9.0
51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
MIAMI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIA -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-2 runs
18.9%
MIA By 3-4 runs
14.4%
ATL By 1-2 runs
17.9%
ATL By 3-4 runs
12.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
4.6
MIAMI
Book Implied: 3.80
Atlanta
4.3
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 5.20
Simulated Score
Miami
6
MIAMI
Book Implied: 3.80
Atlanta
3
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 5.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Marlins
Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Loss
77% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Marlins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.3
A
Sim
Marlins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.9
D
Sim
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
ATL @ MIA
3 - 5
Sep 26, 2026
ATL @ MIA
8 - 3
Sep 25, 2026
ATL @ MIA
0 - 3
Aug 6, 2026
MIA @ ATL
3 - 11
Aug 5, 2026
MIA @ ATL
1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Atlanta
ATL
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.41
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.324
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.727
OPS
▲
.757
168
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+99.4% more
Miami: 168.0
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Walks (L5)
+23.0% more
Miami: 2.6
vs
Atlanta: 2.0
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.6%
Miami: 24.9%
vs
Atlanta: 23.3%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.2%
Miami: 32.6%
vs
Atlanta: 32.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
4.6
3
ATL Score
4.3
11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.4
0.0 / 3.0
Hits
8.5 / 6.0
14.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 0.6
3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.0 / 6.6
8.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
14.2 / 9.1
29.0 / 11.0
Walks
2.0 / 2.6
4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +134 / -162
→
+151 / -165
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
9
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
MIA
ATL
MIA
ML
46%
77-90
48%
78-84
54%
90-78
55%
88-72
ATS
57%
96-71
56%
91-71
52%
87-81
54%
86-74
TTL
53%
83-73-11
56%
88-69-5
49%
76-80-11
53%
82-73-5
Contextual Game News
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