CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
59-55 | Road
11
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
63-51 | Home
12
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Luis Castillo
#58 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Ranger Suarez
#55 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Castillo | 3-9 | 5.06 | 1.39 | 99.2 | 86 |
| Ranger Suarez | 4-3 | 3.15 | 1.16 | 100.0 | 105 |
3-9
W-L
4-3
5.06
ERA
Ldr 3.15
1.39
WHIP
Ldr 1.16
99.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 100.0
86
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 105
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
52%
RED SOX
48%
▲ Edge: +15.90% (CHW)
WHITE SOX
36%
Book Odds: +177
RED SOX
66%
Book Odds: -194
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.7 (Over)
Over 8.5
57%
Under 8.5
43%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
CHICAGO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHW -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)
CHW By 1-2 runs
18.7%
CHW By 3-4 runs
14.1%
BOS By 1-2 runs
18.1%
BOS By 3-4 runs
13.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
4.7
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 3.50
Boston
4.5
BOSTON
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
Chicago
3
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 3.50
Boston
6
BOSTON
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
White Sox
Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Sox
Win
77% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
White Sox (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.2
A
Sim
Red Sox (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.2
C
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 6, 2026
CHW @ BOS
11 - 12
Aug 5, 2026
CHW @ BOS
0 - 4
Aug 4, 2026
CHW @ BOS
2 - 14
Jul 9, 2026
BOS @ CHW
2 - 1
Jul 8, 2026
BOS @ CHW
5 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHW
vs
Boston
BOS
1
Games Played
▲
2
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.324
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.415
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.412
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.826
▲
OPS
.409
1
Home Runs
▲
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+83.3% more
Chicago: 6.0
vs
Boston: 1.0
Errors (L5)
+54.1% more
Chicago: 1.1
vs
Boston: 0.5
OPS (Season)
+41.7%
Chicago: 82.6%
vs
Boston: 40.9%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+25.6%
Chicago: 41.5%
vs
Boston: 15.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHW Score
4.7
11
BOS Score
4.5
12
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 1.1
2.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.3 / 6.0
16.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
2.3 / 0.8
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.0 / 9.3
14.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
17.5 / 9.7
25.0 / 20.0
Walks
3.3 / 3.5
7.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +157 / -192
→
+177 / -194
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 9
→
8.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
CHW
BOS
CHW
ML
50%
80-80
49%
81-86
47%
76-87
56%
94-73
ATS
58%
93-67
59%
99-68
48%
79-84
56%
93-74
TTL
46%
72-83-5
58%
96-69-2
47%
74-83-6
51%
84-81-2
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