WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
56-61 | Road
3
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
62-54 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Miles Mikolas
#36 | SP@
STARTING PITCHER
Cristopher Sanchez
#61 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Mikolas | 3-8 | 5.67 | 1.35 | 108.0 | 55 |
| Cristopher Sanchez | 14-4 | 2.61 | 1.20 | 144.2 | 168 |
3-8
W-L
14-4
5.67
ERA
Ldr 2.61
1.35
WHIP
Ldr 1.20
108.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 144.2
55
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 168
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
37%
PHILLIES
63%
▲ Edge: +11% (WSH)
NATIONALS
26%
Book Odds: +282
PHILLIES
76%
Book Odds: -320
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.2 (Over)
Over 9.0
53%
Under 9.0
47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around WSH +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
WSH By 1-2 runs
15.3%
WSH By 3-4 runs
9.5%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
PHI By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
3.9
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.80
Philadelphia
5.3
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 5.20
Simulated Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 3.80
Philadelphia
6
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 5.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Win
63% Win Prob
C
Sim
Phillies
Win
77% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Nationals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
D
Sim
Phillies (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o9.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.2
D
Sim
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 16, 2026
PHI @ WSH
3 - 0
Sep 15, 2026
PHI @ WSH
3 - 6
Aug 6, 2026
WSH @ PHI
3 - 7
Aug 5, 2026
WSH @ PHI
10 - 4
Aug 4, 2026
WSH @ PHI
0 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.321
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.423
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.744
▲
OPS
.724
210
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+22.0% more
Philadelphia: 5.1
vs
Washington: 4.2
Home Runs (L5)
+10.0% more
Philadelphia: 1.0
vs
Washington: 0.9
Slugging Pct (Season)
+1.5%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Washington: 42.3%
Home Runs (Season)
+98.6% more
Washington: 210.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
3.9
3
PHI Score
5.3
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.4 / 7.1
16.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.9
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.3 / 7.5
12.0 / 3.0
Total Bases
11.4 / 11.9
24.0 / 14.0
Walks
5.1 / 4.2
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +283 / -332
→
+282 / -320
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 9
→
9
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
WSH
PHI
WSH
ML
59%
97-67
57%
92-69
49%
80-84
54%
87-74
ATS
65%
107-57
58%
93-68
51%
83-81
57%
91-70
TTL
57%
88-67-9
50%
77-78-6
51%
78-76-9
42%
65-90-6
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