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DETROIT

TIGERSDET

56-59  |  Road

11
FINAL
Thu, Aug 6 • 4:10 PM ET
T-Mobile Park
View Odds Details →

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

56-60  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Framber Valdez
STARTING PITCHER

Framber Valdez

#59 | Starting Pitcher
@
Bryce Miller
STARTING PITCHER

Bryce Miller

#50 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Framber Valdez 6-7 4.41 1.39 120.1 98
Bryce Miller 4-5 2.80 0.92 74.0 74
6-7 W-L 4-5
4.41 ERA Ldr 2.80
1.39 WHIP Ldr 0.92
120.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 74.0
98 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 74
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
61%
📊
MARINERS
39%
▲ Edge: +12.20% (DET)
TIGERS 49% Book Odds: +106
MARINERS 53% Book Odds: -114
Book Implied: 48.50% / 53.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 8.0 69%
Under 8.0 31%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
DETROIT
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.7 points (Detroit)
TigersDET (+1.5) 0 MarinersSEA (-1.5)
Detroit Tigers (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

61.8%

Mariners Cover

38.2%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around DET -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

DET By 1-2 runs

19.7%

DET By 3-4 runs

16.8%

SEA By 1-2 runs

15.8%

SEA By 3-4 runs

10.0%

AI Model Projected Score
5.6
DETROIT
Book Implied: 3.20
4.4
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
3
DETROIT
Book Implied: 3.20
4
SEATTLE
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tigers Win
61% Win Prob
C
Sim Mariners Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.2
A
Sim Tigers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Sim u8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 6, 2026 DET @ SEA 11 - 0
Aug 5, 2026 DET @ SEA 2 - 4
Aug 4, 2026 DET @ SEA 8 - 0
Jun 7, 2026 SEA @ DET 4 - 5
Jun 6, 2026 SEA @ DET 4 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit DET
vs
Seattle SEA
162
Games Played
162
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.241 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.320 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.720 ▲
OPS
.693
181
Home Runs
▲ 182
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +38.3% more
Detroit: 1.8 vs Seattle: 1.1
Total Bases (L5) +31.4% more
Detroit: 17.1 vs Seattle: 11.7
Strikeouts (L5) +29.5% more
Detroit: 9.1 vs Seattle: 6.4
Hits (L5) +26.7% more
Detroit: 9.9 vs Seattle: 7.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 5.6 11
SEA Score 4.4 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.1 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.3 / 9.9 7.0 / 16.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 1.8 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 6.4 / 9.1 7.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 11.7 / 17.1 7.0 / 24.0
Walks 3.7 / 3.9 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +104 / -126 → +106 / -114 ↓
38%TICKETS62%
43%MONEY57%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
36%TICKETS64%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 8 ↑
62%TICKETS38%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
DET
SEA
DET
ML
50% 81-81
54% 86-73
52% 85-77
54% 87-73
ATS
60% 98-64
64% 101-58
59% 95-67
57% 91-69
TTL
56% 85-67-10
46% 69-81-9
53% 81-71-10
46% 69-81-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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