Home / MLB Projections MLB / Blue Jays @ Cubs TOR @ CHC

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

54-62  |  Road

2
FINAL
Thu, Aug 6 • 2:20 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

67-49  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Dylan Cease
STARTING PITCHER

Dylan Cease

#84 | Starting Pitcher
@
David Peterson
STARTING PITCHER

David Peterson

#19 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Dylan Cease 7-5 2.41 1.08 119.1 174
David Peterson 6-7 5.52 1.48 101.0 85
7-5 W-L 6-7
2.41 Ldr ERA 5.52
1.08 Ldr WHIP 1.48
119.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 101.0
174 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 85
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
42%
📊
CUBS
58%
▲ Edge: +8% (CHC)
BLUE JAYS 52% Book Odds: -108
CUBS 50% Book Odds: +101
Book Implied: 51.90% / 49.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 (Over)
Over 7.5 68%
Under 7.5 32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
CHICAGO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 points (Chicago)
Blue JaysTOR (-1.5) 0 CubsCHC (+1.5)
Chicago Cubs (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Jays Cover

41.1%

Cubs Cover

58.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

TOR By 1-2 runs

16.6%

TOR By 3-4 runs

10.9%

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.5%

CHC By 3-4 runs

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
4.3
TORONTO
Book Implied: 4.50
5.2
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 3
Simulated Score
3
TORONTO
Book Implied: 4.50
2
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 3
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cubs Win
58% Win Prob
C
Sim Blue Jays Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cubs (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -0.9
A
Sim Cubs (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.5
A
Sim u7.5 Win
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 6, 2026 TOR @ CHC 2 - 3
Jun 20, 2026 TOR @ CHC 8 - 6
Jun 19, 2026 TOR @ CHC 2 - 16
Aug 14, 2025 CHC @ TOR 1 - 2
Aug 13, 2025 CHC @ TOR 4 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto TOR
vs
Chicago CHC
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.00 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.310 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.381 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.692 ▲
OPS
.374
152 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +95.0% more
Chicago: 1.8 vs Toronto: 0.9
Total Bases (L5) +76.2% more
Chicago: 18.8 vs Toronto: 10.7
Hits (L5) +70.7% more
Chicago: 10.5 vs Toronto: 6.1
Walks (L5) +56.8% more
Chicago: 3.0 vs Toronto: 1.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 4.3 2
CHC Score 5.2 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.4 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 10.5 / 6.1 5.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 1.8 / 0.9 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.5 / 8.7 7.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 18.8 / 10.7 8.0 / 13.0
Walks 3.0 / 1.9 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -114 / +103 → -108 / +101
42%TICKETS58%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → -1.5 / +1.5
50%TICKETS50%
67%MONEY33%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 7.5
67%TICKETS33%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
TOR
CHC
TOR
ML
58% 93-68
46% 74-87
51% 82-79
50% 80-80
ATS
61% 97-63-1
56% 90-71
47% 75-85-1
49% 79-81
TTL
52% 81-74-6
51% 80-76-5
46% 72-83-6
45% 70-85-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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