PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
57-60 | Road
2
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
72-43 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Braxton Ashcraft
#35 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Dustin May
#21 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braxton Ashcraft | 11-4 | 3.96 | 1.16 | 127.1 | 140 |
| Dustin May | 5-7 | 4.38 | 1.28 | 109.0 | 106 |
11-4
W-L
5-7
3.96 Ldr
ERA
4.38
1.16 Ldr
WHIP
1.28
127.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
109.0
140 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
106
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
47%
BREWERS
53%
PIRATES
47%
Book Odds: +115
BREWERS
55%
Book Odds: -124
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.7 (Over)
Over 7.5
67%
Under 7.5
33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.4
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PIT +0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
PIT By 1-2 runs
17.7%
PIT By 3-4 runs
12.4%
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.0%
MIL By 3-4 runs
14.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
4.4
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 3
Milwaukee
4.8
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 3
Milwaukee
4
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Brewers
Win
53% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pirates
Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Pirates (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +0.4
B
Sim
Pirates (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.2
A
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 17, 2026
MIL @ PIT
4 - 7
Sep 16, 2026
MIL @ PIT
5 - 4
Sep 15, 2026
MIL @ PIT
5 - 1
Aug 6, 2026
PIT @ MIL
2 - 5
Aug 5, 2026
PIT @ MIL
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
162
Games Played
162
4.73
Runs / Game
▲
5.14
.253
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.330
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.341
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.403
.734
OPS
▲
.743
186
▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+47.8% more
Milwaukee: 4.6
vs
Pittsburgh: 3.1
Hits (L5)
+25.9% more
Milwaukee: 6.7
vs
Pittsburgh: 5.3
Total Bases (L5)
+22.5% more
Milwaukee: 10.5
vs
Pittsburgh: 8.5
Runs per Game (Season)
+8.7% more
Milwaukee: 5.1
vs
Pittsburgh: 4.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
4.4
2
MIL Score
4.8
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.7 / 5.3
7.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.9
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.4 / 11.6
10.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
10.5 / 8.5
15.0 / 10.0
Walks
4.6 / 3.1
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +118 / -142
→
+115 / -124
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
7.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
PIT
MIL
PIT
ML
62%
101-61
52%
82-77
52%
84-78
52%
85-78
ATS
58%
94-68
54%
86-73
48%
78-84
50%
81-82
TTL
40%
62-92-8
47%
72-81-6
50%
77-77-8
50%
79-78-6
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