ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
45-70 | Road
5
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
56-58 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Barnett
#63 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Abbott
#41 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Barnett | 1-1 | 4.85 | 1.31 | 29.2 | 29 |
| Andrew Abbott | 5-7 | 3.91 | 1.39 | 122.0 | 95 |
1-1
W-L
5-7
4.85
ERA
Ldr 3.91
1.31 Ldr
WHIP
1.39
29.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 122.0
29
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 95
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
39%
REDS
61%
ATHLETICS
41%
Book Odds: +145
REDS
61%
Book Odds: -158
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.3 (Under)
Over 9.0
48%
Under 9.0
52%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.1
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Athletics)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH +1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)
ATH By 1-2 runs
16.1%
ATH By 3-4 runs
10.3%
CIN By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CIN By 3-4 runs
16.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Athletics
3.8
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 3.80
Cincinnati
4.9
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 5.20
Simulated Score
Athletics
3
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 3.80
Cincinnati
6
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 5.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Reds
Win
61% Win Prob
C
Sim
Reds
Win
77% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Athletics (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.1
D
Sim
Reds (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.7
D
Sim
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 6, 2026
ATH @ CIN
5 - 6
Aug 5, 2026
ATH @ CIN
2 - 3
Aug 4, 2026
ATH @ CIN
4 - 5
Sep 14, 2025
CIN @ ATH
4 - 7
Sep 13, 2025
CIN @ ATH
5 - 11
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics
ATH
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.31
▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.245
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.719
▲
OPS
.699
194
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+101.0% more
Cincinnati: 4.1
vs
Athletics: 2.1
Home Runs (L5)
+52.0% more
Cincinnati: 1.1
vs
Athletics: 0.6
Errors (L5)
+12.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.3
vs
Athletics: 0.2
Total Bases (L5)
+11.4% more
Cincinnati: 11.2
vs
Athletics: 10.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATH Score
3.8
5
CIN Score
4.9
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.2
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.6 / 6.9
8.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 0.6
4.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.7 / 9.3
13.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
11.2 / 10.1
21.0 / 12.0
Walks
4.1 / 2.1
5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +150 / -183
→
+145 / -158
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 9
→
9
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
CIN
Advantage
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
ATH
CIN
ATH
ML
55%
88-71
59%
95-67
49%
79-81
54%
87-74
ATS
54%
86-73
52%
84-78
50%
80-80
50%
81-80
TTL
53%
81-73-5
54%
84-73-5
54%
83-72-5
42%
66-90-5
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