LOS ANGELES
ANGELSLAA
44-71 | Road
4
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
56-59 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Ryan Johnson
#32 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brandon Young
#63 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Johnson | 2-6 | 7.63 | 1.59 | 46.0 | 37 |
| Brandon Young | 8-2 | 3.31 | 1.29 | 103.1 | 85 |
2-6
W-L
8-2
7.63
ERA
Ldr 3.31
1.59
WHIP
Ldr 1.29
46.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 103.1
37
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 85
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
33%
ORIOLES
67%
▲ Edge: +1.60% (BAL)
ANGELS
37%
Book Odds: +170
ORIOLES
65%
Book Odds: -187
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
9.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.3 (Under)
Over 9.5
48%
Under 9.5
52%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
LAA By 1-2 runs
14.1%
LAA By 3-4 runs
8.4%
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
BAL By 3-4 runs
18.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Los Angeles
3.7
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 4
Baltimore
5.5
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 5.50
Simulated Score
Los Angeles
4
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 4
Baltimore
6
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 5.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Orioles
Loss
67% Win Prob
B
Sim
Orioles
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Orioles (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.8
D
Sim
Orioles (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u9.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.2
D
Sim
o9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 6, 2026
LAA @ BAL
4 - 1
Aug 5, 2026
LAA @ BAL
2 - 5
Aug 4, 2026
LAA @ BAL
1 - 3
Jun 24, 2026
BAL @ LAA
6 - 7
Jun 23, 2026
BAL @ LAA
1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles
LAA
vs
Baltimore
BAL
162
▲
Games Played
161
4.04
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.234
Avg (AVG)
.234
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.314
.369
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.679
OPS
▲
.711
154
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+96.4% more
Baltimore: 2.7
vs
Los Angeles: 1.4
Home Runs (L5)
+78.0% more
Baltimore: 1.4
vs
Los Angeles: 0.6
Home Runs (Season)
+29.2% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Los Angeles: 154.0
Total Bases (L5)
+13.9% more
Baltimore: 10.6
vs
Los Angeles: 9.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LAA Score
3.7
4
BAL Score
5.5
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.6
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.2 / 6.2
4.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 0.6
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.7 / 10.7
7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
10.6 / 9.3
7.0 / 14.0
Walks
2.7 / 1.4
5.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +144 / -175
→
+170 / -187
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 9.5
→
9.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0
(38.3%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
LAA
BAL
LAA
ML
53%
83-73
59%
96-66
57%
90-69
55%
89-73
ATS
61%
95-60-1
60%
97-65
57%
90-68-1
51%
82-80
TTL
54%
81-70-5
53%
83-74-5
51%
78-75-6
52%
82-75-5
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