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MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

56-59  |  Road

1
FINAL
Wed, Aug 5 • 7:40 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

48-67  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Dean Kremer
STARTING PITCHER

Dean Kremer

#13 | Starting Pitcher
@
Noah Cameron
STARTING PITCHER

Noah Cameron

#65 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Dean Kremer 1-4 6.50 1.36 36.0 38
Noah Cameron 5-8 4.59 1.34 115.2 107
1-4 W-L 5-8
6.50 ERA Ldr 4.59
1.36 WHIP Ldr 1.34
36.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 115.2
38 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 107
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
38%
📊
ROYALS
62%
▲ Edge: +7.90% (KC)
TWINS 48% Book Odds: +107
ROYALS 54% Book Odds: -116
Book Implied: 48.30% / 53.70%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.8
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.2 (Under)
Over 9.0 46%
Under 9.0 54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.2
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Minnesota)
TwinsMIN (+1.5) 0 RoyalsKC (-1.5)
Minnesota Twins (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Twins Cover

61.8%

Royals Cover

38.2%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIN +1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

MIN By 1-2 runs

15.8%

MIN By 3-4 runs

10.0%

KC By 1-2 runs

19.7%

KC By 3-4 runs

16.8%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3.80
5
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 5.20
Simulated Score
4
MINNESOTA
Book Implied: 3.80
6
KANSAS CITY
Book Implied: 5.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Royals Win
62% Win Prob
C
Sim Royals Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Twins (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.2
A
Sim Royals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.8
D
Sim o9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 6, 2026 MIN @ KC 4 - 3
Aug 5, 2026 MIN @ KC 1 - 2
Aug 4, 2026 MIN @ KC 2 - 8
Jul 30, 2026 KC @ MIN 3 - 4
Jul 29, 2026 KC @ MIN 4 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota MIN
vs
Kansas City KC
162
Games Played
162
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.720 ▲
OPS
.718
187 ▲
Home Runs
170
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +8.8% more
Kansas City: 8.4 vs Minnesota: 7.7
Batting Avg (Season) +0.2%
Kansas City: 24.7% vs Minnesota: 24.5%
Home Runs (L5) +55.7% more
Minnesota: 1.7 vs Kansas City: 0.7
Errors (L5) +18.0% more
Minnesota: 0.8 vs Kansas City: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 3.8 1
KC Score 5.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.4 / 7.7 5.0 / 2.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 1.7 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.3 / 6.1 4.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 13.9 / 14.1 8.0 / 2.0
Walks 2.6 / 2.8 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -108 / -112 → +107 / -116 ↑
37%TICKETS63%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5 ↑
31%TICKETS69%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: 9 → 9
81%TICKETS19%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
MIN
KC
MIN
ML
55% 89-72
52% 84-78
56% 90-70
50% 80-81
ATS
57% 91-70
59% 95-67
58% 93-67
59% 95-66
TTL
58% 90-64-7
51% 78-75-9
54% 83-70-7
53% 80-72-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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