PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
57-59 | Road
2
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
71-43 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Paul Skenes
#30 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Harrison
#52 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Skenes | 9-9 | 3.90 | 1.11 | 124.2 | 156 |
| Kyle Harrison | 8-2 | 3.01 | 1.08 | 83.2 | 101 |
9-9
W-L
8-2
3.90
ERA
Ldr 3.01
1.11
WHIP
Ldr 1.08
124.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
83.2
156 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
101
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
34%
BREWERS
66%
▲ Edge: +10.50% (MIL)
PIRATES
46%
Book Odds: +117
BREWERS
56%
Book Odds: -127
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.1
Projected
Book Total
7.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +2.1 (Over)
Over 7.0
70%
Under 7.0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.9
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIL -1.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
PIT By 1-2 runs
13.9%
PIT By 3-4 runs
8.1%
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
MIL By 3-4 runs
18.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3.6
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 2.80
Milwaukee
5.5
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 4.20
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Book Implied: 2.80
Milwaukee
3
MILWAUKEE
Book Implied: 4.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Brewers
Win
66% Win Prob
B
Sim
Pirates
Loss
70% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Brewers (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.9
D
Sim
Pirates (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.1
A
Sim
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 17, 2026
MIL @ PIT
4 - 7
Sep 16, 2026
MIL @ PIT
5 - 4
Sep 15, 2026
MIL @ PIT
5 - 1
Aug 6, 2026
PIT @ MIL
2 - 5
Aug 5, 2026
PIT @ MIL
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
162
Games Played
162
4.73
Runs / Game
▲
5.14
.253
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.330
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.341
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.403
.734
OPS
▲
.743
186
▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+24.2% more
Milwaukee: 8.1
vs
Pittsburgh: 6.5
Walks (L5)
+23.3% more
Milwaukee: 3.9
vs
Pittsburgh: 3.2
Total Bases (L5)
+19.1% more
Milwaukee: 11.7
vs
Pittsburgh: 9.8
Home Runs (L5)
+9.0% more
Milwaukee: 0.9
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.6
2
MIL Score
5.5
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.5
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.1 / 6.5
4.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 0.9
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.2 / 10.4
10.0 / 14.0
Total Bases
11.7 / 9.8
8.0 / 6.0
Walks
3.9 / 3.2
6.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +104 / -125
→
+117 / -127
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
7
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
PIT
MIL
PIT
ML
62%
101-61
52%
82-77
52%
84-78
52%
85-78
ATS
58%
94-68
54%
86-73
48%
78-84
50%
81-82
TTL
40%
62-92-8
47%
72-81-6
50%
77-77-8
50%
79-78-6
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