Home / MLB Projections MLB / Marlins @ Braves MIA @ ATL

MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

58-57  |  Road

1
FINAL
Wed, Aug 5 • 7:15 PM ET
Truist Park
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

69-45  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Eury Perez
STARTING PITCHER

Eury Perez

#39 | Starting Pitcher
@
Bryce Elder
STARTING PITCHER

Bryce Elder

#55 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Eury Perez 5-8 3.44 1.10 104.2 112
Bryce Elder 7-6 3.84 1.25 119.2 101
5-8 W-L 7-6
3.44 Ldr ERA 3.84
1.10 Ldr WHIP 1.25
104.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 119.2
112 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 101
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
63%
📊
BRAVES
37%
▲ Edge: +17.60% (MIA)
MARLINS 46% Book Odds: +119
BRAVES 56% Book Odds: -129
Book Implied: 45.70% / 56.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.2
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +0.3 (Under)
Over 8.5 49%
Under 8.5 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
MIAMI
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Miami)
MarlinsMIA (+1.5) 0 BravesATL (-1.5)
Miami Marlins (+1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marlins Cover

63.7%

Braves Cover

36.3%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIA -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

MIA By 1-2 runs

19.7%

MIA By 3-4 runs

17.2%

ATL By 1-2 runs

15.3%

ATL By 3-4 runs

9.5%

AI Model Projected Score
4.8
MIAMI
Book Implied: 3.50
3.4
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
3
MIAMI
Book Implied: 3.50
6
ATLANTA
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Marlins Loss
63% Win Prob
B
Sim Braves Win
77% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Marlins (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.4
A
Sim Braves (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.2
D
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 ATL @ MIA 3 - 5
Sep 26, 2026 ATL @ MIA 8 - 3
Sep 25, 2026 ATL @ MIA 0 - 3
Aug 6, 2026 MIA @ ATL 3 - 11
Aug 5, 2026 MIA @ ATL 1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami MIA
vs
Atlanta ATL
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.41
Runs / Game
▲ 5.00
.249 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.324
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .433
.727
OPS
▲ .757
168 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +99.4% more
Miami: 168.0 vs Atlanta: 1.0
Walks (L5) +31.1% more
Miami: 2.9 vs Atlanta: 2.0
Strikeouts (L5) +14.3% more
Miami: 6.9 vs Atlanta: 5.9
Batting Avg (Season) +1.6%
Miami: 24.9% vs Atlanta: 23.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 4.8 1
ATL Score 3.4 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.6 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.8 / 7.6 10.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 2.0 / 0.9 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 5.9 / 6.9 12.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 15.3 / 11.7 12.0 / 4.0
Walks 2.0 / 2.9 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +108 / -131 → +119 / -129
13%TICKETS87%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
17%TICKETS83%
9%MONEY91%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8.5
77%TICKETS23%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
ATL Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
MIA
ATL
MIA
ML
46% 77-90
48% 78-84
54% 90-78
55% 88-72
ATS
57% 96-71
56% 91-71
52% 87-81
54% 86-74
TTL
53% 83-73-11
56% 88-69-5
49% 76-80-11
53% 82-73-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
si 47 minutes ago
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
hawaiitribune_herald 12 hours, 53 minutes ago
Dodgers Embrace 'Dinosaur' Label While Trolling Padres After NLD…
headtopics 18 hours, 57 minutes ago
Walt Weiss Reveals Why Ronald Acuña Jr. Was DH in Game 3
yahoo 1 day, 18 hours ago
Shohei Ohtani's Slump Raises Concerns for Dodgers in NLDS
usatoday 2 days, 12 hours ago