CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
59-54 | Road
0
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
62-51 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Sean Burke
#59 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Sonny Gray
#54 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Burke | 7-5 | 3.04 | 1.10 | 124.1 | 140 |
| Sonny Gray | 13-2 | 2.93 | 1.17 | 113.2 | 98 |
7-5
W-L
13-2
3.04
ERA
Ldr 2.93
1.10 Ldr
WHIP
1.17
124.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
113.2
140 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
98
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
62%
RED SOX
38%
▲ Edge: +18.60% (CHW)
WHITE SOX
43%
Book Odds: +131
RED SOX
58%
Book Odds: -140
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.4
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.6 (Under)
Over 8.0
47%
Under 8.0
53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
CHICAGO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.9 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHW -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)
CHW By 1-2 runs
19.7%
CHW By 3-4 runs
17.2%
BOS By 1-2 runs
15.3%
BOS By 3-4 runs
9.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
4.4
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 3.20
Boston
3
BOSTON
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Chicago
3
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 3.20
Boston
6
BOSTON
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
White Sox
Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Sim
Red Sox
Win
77% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
White Sox (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.4
A
Sim
Red Sox (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u8.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.4
D
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 6, 2026
CHW @ BOS
11 - 12
Aug 5, 2026
CHW @ BOS
0 - 4
Aug 4, 2026
CHW @ BOS
2 - 14
Jul 9, 2026
BOS @ CHW
2 - 1
Jul 8, 2026
BOS @ CHW
5 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHW
vs
Boston
BOS
1
Games Played
▲
2
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.324
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.415
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.412
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.826
▲
OPS
.409
1
Home Runs
▲
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+83.3% more
Chicago: 6.0
vs
Boston: 1.0
Errors (L5)
+76.9% more
Chicago: 1.2
vs
Boston: 0.3
OPS (Season)
+41.7%
Chicago: 82.6%
vs
Boston: 40.9%
Strikeouts (L5)
+34.5% more
Chicago: 9.9
vs
Boston: 6.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHW Score
4.4
0
BOS Score
3.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 1.2
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
10.5 / 6.9
7.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
2.9 / 1.3
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.5 / 9.9
14.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
20.8 / 12.0
11.0 / 5.0
Walks
3.4 / 3.3
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +108 / -131
→
+131 / -140
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
CHW
BOS
CHW
ML
50%
80-80
49%
81-86
47%
76-87
56%
94-73
ATS
58%
93-67
59%
99-68
48%
79-84
56%
93-74
TTL
46%
72-83-5
58%
96-69-2
47%
74-83-6
51%
84-81-2
Contextual Game News
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
White Sox Eye ALDS Sweep Over Guardians in Game 3 Showdown
MLB Division Series: All Four Could End Today for First Time Sin…
Sean Burke's Relief Masterclass Puts White Sox on Brink of ALCS