WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
56-60 | Road
10
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
61-54 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jake Irvin
#27 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Painter
#24 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Irvin | 2-5 | 5.56 | 1.32 | 56.2 | 59 |
| Andrew Painter | 1-8 | 6.72 | 1.61 | 71.0 | 59 |
2-5
W-L
1-8
5.56 Ldr
ERA
6.72
1.32 Ldr
WHIP
1.61
56.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 71.0
59
K (Strikeouts)
59
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
56%
PHILLIES
44%
▲ Edge: +19.80% (WSH)
NATIONALS
37%
Book Odds: +173
PHILLIES
66%
Book Odds: -190
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.1
Projected
Book Total
9.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.6 (Over)
Over 9.5
64%
Under 9.5
36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around WSH -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
WSH By 1-2 runs
19.4%
WSH By 3-4 runs
15.5%
PHI By 1-2 runs
17.0%
PHI By 3-4 runs
11.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
5.9
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 4
Philadelphia
5.2
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 5.50
Simulated Score
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Book Implied: 4
Philadelphia
6
PHILADELPHIA
Book Implied: 5.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Nationals
Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phillies
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Nationals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.7
A
Sim
Phillies (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o9.5
Win
Proj Total: 11.1
B
Sim
o9.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 16, 2026
PHI @ WSH
3 - 0
Sep 15, 2026
PHI @ WSH
3 - 6
Aug 6, 2026
WSH @ PHI
3 - 7
Aug 5, 2026
WSH @ PHI
10 - 4
Aug 4, 2026
WSH @ PHI
0 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.321
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.423
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.744
▲
OPS
.724
210
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+98.6% more
Washington: 210.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+37.7% more
Washington: 8.8
vs
Philadelphia: 5.5
Runs per Game (Season)
+31.0% more
Washington: 5.1
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
Errors (L5)
+20.0% more
Washington: 0.6
vs
Philadelphia: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
5.9
10
PHI Score
5.2
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.5 / 5.6
5.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.8
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
5.5 / 8.8
11.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
13.1 / 9.4
8.0 / 17.0
Walks
3.7 / 3.3
8.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +135 / -163
→
+173 / -190
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 9.5
→
9.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
WSH
PHI
WSH
ML
59%
97-67
57%
92-69
49%
80-84
54%
87-74
ATS
65%
107-57
58%
93-68
51%
83-81
57%
91-70
TTL
57%
88-67-9
50%
77-78-6
51%
78-76-9
42%
65-90-6
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