NEW YORK
METSNYM
49-66 | Road
6
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
57-58 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Christian Scott
#45 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tanner Bibee
#28 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Scott | 3-3 | 2.99 | 1.24 | 69.1 | 85 |
| Tanner Bibee | 4-11 | 3.81 | 1.15 | 132.1 | 100 |
3-3
W-L
4-11
2.99 Ldr
ERA
3.81
1.24
WHIP
Ldr 1.15
69.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 132.1
85
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 100
AI Model Win Probability
METS
75%
GUARDIANS
25%
▲ Edge: +25.30% (NYM)
METS
50%
Book Odds: +101
GUARDIANS
52%
Book Odds: -107
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.3
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.2 (Under)
Over 7.5
47%
Under 7.5
53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.9
NEW YORK
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM -2.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
NYM By 1-2 runs
18.6%
NYM By 3-4 runs
19.5%
CLE By 1-2 runs
10.9%
CLE By 3-4 runs
5.6%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
5.1
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.50
Cleveland
2.2
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 3
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Book Implied: 4.50
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
Book Implied: 3
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mets
Win
75% Win Prob
A
Sim
Guardians
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Mets (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.9
B
Sim
Guardians (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.3
D
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 6, 2026
NYM @ CLE
13 - 6
Aug 5, 2026
NYM @ CLE
6 - 5
Aug 4, 2026
NYM @ CLE
6 - 2
Aug 6, 2025
CLE @ NYM
4 - 1
Aug 5, 2025
CLE @ NYM
3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Cleveland
CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.31
▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.239
Avg (AVG)
.239
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.316
.395
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.705
▲
OPS
.696
204
▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+56.6% more
New York: 1.5
vs
Cleveland: 0.6
Home Runs (Season)
+20.6% more
New York: 204.0
vs
Cleveland: 162.0
Total Bases (L5)
+11.1% more
New York: 12.9
vs
Cleveland: 11.5
Runs per Game (Season)
+2.8% more
New York: 4.3
vs
Cleveland: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
5.1
6
CLE Score
2.2
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.1 / 0.7
3.0 / 2.0
Hits
7.9 / 7.3
11.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.5
0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
7.9 / 8.6
13.0 / 16.0
Total Bases
11.5 / 12.9
12.0 / 22.0
Walks
5.1 / 3.0
5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -121 / +101
→
+101 / -107
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
7.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
NYM
CLE
NYM
ML
54%
87-74
50%
79-80
49%
80-82
48%
76-83
ATS
58%
93-68
58%
93-66
59%
95-67
49%
78-81
TTL
55%
88-71-2
55%
80-66-13
43%
69-90-2
51%
74-72-13
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