ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
45-69 | Road
2
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
55-58 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob Lopez
#57 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Rhett Lowder
#25 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Lopez | 5-4 | 5.79 | 1.67 | 70.0 | 61 |
| Rhett Lowder | 3-7 | 5.42 | 1.52 | 83.0 | 70 |
5-4
W-L
3-7
5.79
ERA
Ldr 5.42
1.67
WHIP
Ldr 1.52
70.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 83.0
61
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 70
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
40%
REDS
60%
▲ Edge: +0.30% (ATH)
ATHLETICS
39%
Book Odds: +154
REDS
62%
Book Odds: -164
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.9
Projected
Book Total
9.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.6 (Under)
Over 9.5
45%
Under 9.5
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.1
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Athletics)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH +1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)
ATH By 1-2 runs
16.1%
ATH By 3-4 runs
10.3%
CIN By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CIN By 3-4 runs
16.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Athletics
3.9
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 4
Cincinnati
5
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 5.50
Simulated Score
Athletics
4
ATHLETICS
Book Implied: 4
Cincinnati
6
CINCINNATI
Book Implied: 5.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Reds
Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
Reds
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Athletics (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.1
D
Sim
Reds (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u9.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.9
C
Sim
o9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 6, 2026
ATH @ CIN
5 - 6
Aug 5, 2026
ATH @ CIN
2 - 3
Aug 4, 2026
ATH @ CIN
4 - 5
Sep 14, 2025
CIN @ ATH
4 - 7
Sep 13, 2025
CIN @ ATH
5 - 11
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics
ATH
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.31
▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.245
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.719
▲
OPS
.699
194
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+100.0% more
Cincinnati: 5.2
vs
Athletics: 2.6
Home Runs (L5)
+80.0% more
Cincinnati: 1.1
vs
Athletics: 0.3
Errors (L5)
+19.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.5
vs
Athletics: 0.3
Strikeouts (L5)
+13.6% more
Cincinnati: 9.5
vs
Athletics: 8.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATH Score
3.9
2
CIN Score
5.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.9 / 8.3
6.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 0.3
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.5 / 8.4
7.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
12.4 / 11.1
9.0 / 8.0
Walks
5.2 / 2.6
2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +129 / -156
→
+154 / -164
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 9.5
→
9.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
CIN
Advantage
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
ATH
CIN
ATH
ML
55%
88-71
59%
95-67
49%
79-81
54%
87-74
ATS
54%
86-73
52%
84-78
50%
80-80
50%
81-80
TTL
53%
81-73-5
54%
84-73-5
54%
83-72-5
42%
66-90-5
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