LOS ANGELES
ANGELSLAA
43-71 | Road
2
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
56-58 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Reid Detmers
#48 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Trevor Rogers
#28 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reid Detmers | 3-7 | 4.03 | 1.10 | 125.0 | 145 |
| Trevor Rogers | 6-7 | 4.27 | 1.28 | 109.2 | 89 |
3-7
W-L
6-7
4.03 Ldr
ERA
4.27
1.10 Ldr
WHIP
1.28
125.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
109.2
145 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
89
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
49%
ORIOLES
51%
▲ Edge: +4.50% (LAA)
ANGELS
45%
Book Odds: +124
ORIOLES
57%
Book Odds: -135
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.6 (Over)
Over 7.5
51%
Under 7.5
49%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.1
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Los Angeles)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAA +0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)
LAA By 1-2 runs
18.3%
LAA By 3-4 runs
13.3%
BAL By 1-2 runs
18.6%
BAL By 3-4 runs
13.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Los Angeles
4
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 3
Baltimore
4.1
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 4.50
Simulated Score
Los Angeles
3
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 3
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Book Implied: 4.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Orioles
Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
Orioles
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Angels (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +0.1
B
Sim
Orioles (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.1
D
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 6, 2026
LAA @ BAL
4 - 1
Aug 5, 2026
LAA @ BAL
2 - 5
Aug 4, 2026
LAA @ BAL
1 - 3
Jun 24, 2026
BAL @ LAA
6 - 7
Jun 23, 2026
BAL @ LAA
1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles
LAA
vs
Baltimore
BAL
162
▲
Games Played
161
4.04
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.234
Avg (AVG)
.234
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.314
.369
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.679
OPS
▲
.711
154
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+47.1% more
Baltimore: 3.1
vs
Los Angeles: 2.1
Home Runs (Season)
+29.2% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Los Angeles: 154.0
Home Runs (L5)
+16.0% more
Baltimore: 0.6
vs
Los Angeles: 0.4
Runs per Game (Season)
+10.4% more
Baltimore: 4.5
vs
Los Angeles: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LAA Score
4.0
2
BAL Score
4.1
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.3
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
4.8 / 7.2
6.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 0.4
3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.6 / 10.6
12.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
7.8 / 10.4
16.0 / 7.0
Walks
3.1 / 2.1
2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +119 / -143
→
+124 / -135
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
7.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0
(38.3%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
LAA
BAL
LAA
ML
53%
83-73
59%
96-66
57%
90-69
55%
89-73
ATS
61%
95-60-1
60%
97-65
57%
90-68-1
51%
82-80
TTL
54%
81-70-5
53%
83-74-5
51%
78-75-6
52%
82-75-5
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