TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
68-46 | Road
4
COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
45-70 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Nick Martinez
#28 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tomoyuki Sugano
#11 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Martinez | 10-3 | 2.77 | 1.10 | 123.1 | 69 |
| Tomoyuki Sugano | 11-4 | 4.47 | 1.26 | 102.2 | 58 |
10-3
W-L
11-4
2.77 Ldr
ERA
4.47
1.10 Ldr
WHIP
1.26
123.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
102.2
69 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
58
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
48%
ROCKIES
52%
▲ Edge: +11.20% (COL)
RAYS
61%
Book Odds: -153
ROCKIES
41%
Book Odds: +144
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
11.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +3.2 (Under)
Over 11.0
23%
Under 11.0
77%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
COLORADO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Colorado)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around COL -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)
TB By 1-2 runs
18.1%
TB By 3-4 runs
13.0%
COL By 1-2 runs
18.7%
COL By 3-4 runs
14.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
3.8
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 6.20
Colorado
4
COLORADO
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
7
TAMPA BAY
Book Implied: 6.20
Colorado
5
COLORADO
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rockies
Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rays
Win
70% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rockies (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.2
A
Sim
Rays (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u11.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.8
A
Sim
o11.0
Loss
Proj Total: 12.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 5, 2026
TB @ COL
4 - 0
Aug 4, 2026
TB @ COL
9 - 7
Aug 3, 2026
TB @ COL
13 - 9
Mar 30, 2025
COL @ TB
4 - 6
Mar 29, 2025
COL @ TB
2 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Colorado
COL
162
Games Played
162
4.54
Runs / Game
▲
4.64
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.254
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.322
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.417
.728
OPS
▲
.739
169
Home Runs
▲
180
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5)
+22.8% more
Colorado: 20.2
vs
Tampa Bay: 16.5
Home Runs (L5)
+21.0% more
Colorado: 1.7
vs
Tampa Bay: 1.4
Errors (L5)
+15.0% more
Colorado: 0.6
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.5
Strikeouts (L5)
+11.2% more
Colorado: 8.2
vs
Tampa Bay: 7.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
3.8
4
COL Score
4.0
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
11.2 / 10.7
6.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 1.4
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.2 / 7.4
5.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
20.2 / 16.5
7.0 / 12.0
Walks
2.2 / 2.8
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -156 / +129
→
-153 / +144
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5
→
-1.5 / +1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 11.5
→
11
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
TB
COL
TB
ML
60%
97-64
58%
95-68
55%
88-73
58%
95-68
ATS
60%
97-64
60%
97-66
52%
83-78
55%
90-73
TTL
60%
93-62-6
47%
73-81-9
50%
77-78-6
51%
78-75-10
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