Home / MLB Projections MLB / Giants @ Rangers SF @ TEX

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

48-67  |  Road

0
FINAL
Wed, Aug 5 • 2:35 PM ET
Globe Life Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

57-58  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Carson Whisenhunt
STARTING PITCHER

Carson Whisenhunt

#88 | SP
@
Cody Bradford
STARTING PITCHER

Cody Bradford

#61 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Carson Whisenhunt 2-2 6.63 1.74 19.0 16
Cody Bradford 0-0 0.00 0.00 -- --
2-2 W-L 0-0
6.63 ERA Ldr 0.00
1.74 WHIP Ldr 0.00
19.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) --
16 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
24%
📊
RANGERS
76%
▲ Edge: +15.50% (TEX)
GIANTS 41% Book Odds: +142
RANGERS 61% Book Odds: -154
Book Implied: 41.30% / 60.60%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.1
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.6 (Over)
Over 8.5 73%
Under 8.5 27%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.1
TEXAS
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Texas)
GiantsSF (+1.5) 0 RangersTEX (-1.5)
Texas Rangers (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

21.9%

Rangers Cover

78.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX -3.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

SF By 1-2 runs

10.3%

SF By 3-4 runs

5.2%

TEX By 1-2 runs

18.3%

TEX By 3-4 runs

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
4
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3.50
7.1
TEXAS
Book Implied: 5
Simulated Score
3
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Implied: 3.50
6
TEXAS
Book Implied: 5
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Rangers Win
76% Win Prob
A
Sim Rangers Win
77% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rangers (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.1
B
Sim Rangers (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 11.1
A
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 5, 2026 SF @ TEX 0 - 6
Aug 4, 2026 SF @ TEX 4 - 5
Aug 3, 2026 SF @ TEX 5 - 1
Apr 27, 2025 TEX @ SF 2 - 3
Apr 26, 2025 TEX @ SF 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
Texas TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.13
Runs / Game
▲ 4.15
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.706
OPS
▲ .713
178
Home Runs
▲ 183
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +78.0% more
Texas: 1.1 vs San Francisco: 0.4
Strikeouts (L5) +19.2% more
Texas: 8.7 vs San Francisco: 7.3
Hits (L5) +13.7% more
Texas: 8.1 vs San Francisco: 7.1
Home Runs (Season) +2.8% more
Texas: 183.0 vs San Francisco: 178.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 4.0 0
TEX Score 7.1 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.1 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.1 / 7.1 9.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 1.3 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.7 / 7.3 8.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 12.2 / 12.2 16.0 / 10.0
Walks 3.5 / 4.1 5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +149 / -181 → +142 / -154 ↓
30%TICKETS70%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5
26%TICKETS74%
16%MONEY84%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5 → 8.5
38%TICKETS62%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
TEX Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
SF
TEX
SF
ML
53% 86-76
49% 79-81
57% 91-70
53% 85-75
ATS
57% 92-70
62% 100-60
61% 98-63
52% 83-77
TTL
53% 78-70-14
55% 82-68-10
55% 81-66-14
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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