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LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

69-46  |  Road

6
FINAL
Wed, Aug 5 • 2:20 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

66-49  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Eric Lauer
STARTING PITCHER

Eric Lauer

#33 | SP
@
Shota Imanaga
STARTING PITCHER

Shota Imanaga

#18 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Eric Lauer 6-5 4.50 1.19 88.0 56
Shota Imanaga 7-9 3.67 1.07 127.2 119
6-5 W-L 7-9
4.50 ERA Ldr 3.67
1.19 WHIP Ldr 1.07
88.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 127.2
56 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 119
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
35%
📊
CUBS
65%
▲ Edge: +11.50% (CHC)
DODGERS 49% Book Odds: +105
CUBS 53% Book Odds: -114
Book Implied: 48.80% / 53.30%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.2
Projected
Book Total
10.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 (Over)
Over 10.0 61%
Under 10.0 39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
CHICAGO
Book Spread
-1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Chicago)
DodgersLAD (+1.5) 0 CubsCHC (-1.5)
Chicago Cubs (-1.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

34.5%

Cubs Cover

65.5%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

LAD By 1-2 runs

14.7%

LAD By 3-4 runs

8.9%

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.7%

CHC By 3-4 runs

17.7%

AI Model Projected Score
4.8
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 4.20
6.4
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5.80
Simulated Score
4
LOS ANGELES
Book Implied: 4.20
6
CHICAGO
Book Implied: 5.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cubs Win
65% Win Prob
B
Sim Cubs Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cubs (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.6
D
Sim Cubs (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o10.0 Win
Proj Total: 11.2
B
Sim u10.0 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 5, 2026 LAD @ CHC 6 - 7
Aug 4, 2026 LAD @ CHC 1 - 5
Aug 3, 2026 LAD @ CHC 5 - 10
Apr 26, 2026 CHC @ LAD 0 - 6
Apr 25, 2026 CHC @ LAD 4 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
Chicago CHC
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.94 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.257 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.338 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.424 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.762 ▲
OPS
.374
204 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +119.6% more
Chicago: 4.5 vs Los Angeles: 2.0
Strikeouts (L5) +59.1% more
Chicago: 8.8 vs Los Angeles: 5.5
Home Runs (L5) +54.0% more
Chicago: 1.7 vs Los Angeles: 1.1
Total Bases (L5) +27.4% more
Chicago: 15.2 vs Los Angeles: 11.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 4.8 6
CHC Score 6.4 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.6 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.2 / 7.8 15.0 / 14.0
Home Runs 1.7 / 1.1 2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 8.8 / 5.5 11.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 15.2 / 11.9 26.0 / 23.0
Walks 4.5 / 2.0 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +105 / -126 → +105 / -114 ↓
56%TICKETS44%
92%MONEY8%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -1.5 / +1.5 → +1.5 / -1.5 ↑
68%TICKETS32%
90%MONEY10%
Total (O/U)
Open: 9.5 → 10 ↑
41%TICKETS59%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
CHC
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
LAD
CHC
LAD
ML
58% 93-68
56% 92-73
51% 82-79
48% 79-87
ATS
61% 97-63-1
59% 98-67
47% 75-85-1
43% 72-94
TTL
52% 81-74-6
48% 77-82-6
46% 72-83-6
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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