TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
54-61 | Road
5
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
59-57 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jameson Taillon
#56 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Hunter Brown
#58 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameson Taillon | 2-6 | 5.92 | 1.36 | 76.0 | 68 |
| Hunter Brown | 3-1 | 3.42 | 1.29 | 52.2 | 55 |
2-6
W-L
3-1
5.92
ERA
Ldr 3.42
1.36
WHIP
Ldr 1.29
76.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
52.2
68 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
55
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
44%
ASTROS
56%
▲ Edge: +11.10% (TOR)
BLUE JAYS
33%
Book Odds: +205
ASTROS
69%
Book Odds: -227
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.3
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.3 (Over)
Over 8.0
55%
Under 8.0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.7
TORONTO
Book Spread
+1.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR +0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TOR By 1-2 runs
17.0%
TOR By 3-4 runs
11.5%
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.4%
HOU By 3-4 runs
15.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
3.8
TORONTO
Book Implied: 3.20
Houston
4.5
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 4.80
Simulated Score
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Book Implied: 3.20
Houston
3
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 4.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Astros
Loss
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Jays
Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.7
B
Sim
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.3
C
Sim
u8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 5, 2026
TOR @ HOU
5 - 4
Aug 4, 2026
TOR @ HOU
2 - 7
Aug 3, 2026
TOR @ HOU
3 - 1
Jun 24, 2026
HOU @ TOR
3 - 1
Jun 23, 2026
HOU @ TOR
9 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Houston
HOU
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.00
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.310
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.381
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.692
▲
OPS
.582
152
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+196.2% more
Houston: 5.5
vs
Toronto: 1.9
Hits (L5)
+59.2% more
Houston: 10.7
vs
Toronto: 6.7
Home Runs (L5)
+59.0% more
Houston: 0.9
vs
Toronto: 0.3
Total Bases (L5)
+54.1% more
Houston: 15.4
vs
Toronto: 10.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
3.8
5
HOU Score
4.5
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.6
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.7 / 6.7
10.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 0.3
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.1 / 6.5
9.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
15.4 / 10.0
15.0 / 12.0
Walks
5.5 / 1.9
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +100 / -120
→
+205 / -227
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: +1.5 / -1.5
→
+1.5 / -1.5
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5
→
8
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
TOR
HOU
TOR
ML
50%
81-82
46%
74-87
47%
77-87
50%
80-80
ATS
56%
91-72
56%
90-71
55%
90-74
49%
79-81
TTL
45%
70-84-9
51%
80-76-5
45%
69-86-9
45%
70-85-5
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