SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
59-55 | Road
9
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
60-54 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Randy Vasquez
#98 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Eduardo Rodriguez
#57 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Vasquez | 6-6 | 4.19 | 1.47 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | 10-3 | 2.71 | 1.21 | 5.2 | 4 |
6-6
W-L
10-3
4.19
ERA
Ldr 2.71
1.47
WHIP
Ldr 1.21
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
5.2
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
52%
DIAMONDBACKS
49%
▲ Edge: +3.90% (SD)
PADRES
48%
Book Odds: +110
DIAMONDBACKS
54%
Book Odds: -119
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.3
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.3 (Over)
Over 9.0
63%
Under 9.0
37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.1
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ARI +0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
SD By 1-2 runs
18.6%
SD By 3-4 runs
13.9%
ARI By 1-2 runs
18.3%
ARI By 3-4 runs
13.3%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
5.2
SAN DIEGO
Arizona
5.1
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
San Diego
3
SAN DIEGO
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Padres
Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim
Diamondbacks
Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +0.1
B
Sim
Diamondbacks (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o9.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.3
B
Sim
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
ARI @ SD
4 - 9
Sep 26, 2026
ARI @ SD
7 - 10
Sep 25, 2026
ARI @ SD
11 - 4
Aug 6, 2026
SD @ ARI
5 - 1
Aug 5, 2026
SD @ ARI
4 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Arizona
ARI
2
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.925
▲
OPS
.720
4
Home Runs
▲
166
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+24.0% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Arizona: 4.6
Errors (L5)
+23.0% more
San Diego: 0.7
vs
Arizona: 0.4
OPS (Season)
+20.5%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Arizona: 72.0%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+16.1%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
Arizona: 40.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
5.2
9
ARI Score
5.1
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.7
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.2 / 8.2
6.0 / 16.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 0.6
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.2 / 7.4
3.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
12.4 / 10.9
12.0 / 20.0
Walks
4.0 / 2.9
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +109 / -131
→
+110 / -119
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / --
→
-- / --
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
9
↑
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
SD
ARI
SD
ML
54%
87-74
51%
85-83
54%
86-74
51%
85-82
ATS
57%
91-70
54%
91-77
56%
89-71
55%
92-75
TTL
52%
80-73-8
51%
82-80-6
49%
73-77-9
54%
86-74-6
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