TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
67-46 | Road
9
COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
45-69 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Freddy Peralta
#51 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Gabriel Hughes
#43 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freddy Peralta | 5-9 | 5.37 | 1.48 | 3.2 | 3 |
| Gabriel Hughes | 0-3 | 4.25 | 1.19 | 5.1 | 7 |
5-9
W-L
0-3
5.37
ERA
Ldr 4.25
1.48
WHIP
Ldr 1.19
3.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 5.1
3
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 7
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
40%
ROCKIES
60%
▲ Edge: +20.70% (COL)
RAYS
63%
Book Odds: -169
ROCKIES
39%
Book Odds: +155
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
10.5
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +2.7 (Under)
Over 10.5
24%
Under 10.5
76%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around COL -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)
TB By 1-2 runs
15.8%
TB By 3-4 runs
10.0%
COL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
COL By 3-4 runs
16.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
3.3
TAMPA BAY
Colorado
4.5
COLORADO
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
7
TAMPA BAY
Colorado
5
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rockies
Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
Rays
Win
70% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rockies (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.2
A
Sim
Rays (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u10.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.8
A
Sim
o10.5
Win
Proj Total: 12.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 5, 2026
TB @ COL
4 - 0
Aug 4, 2026
TB @ COL
9 - 7
Aug 3, 2026
TB @ COL
13 - 9
Mar 30, 2025
COL @ TB
4 - 6
Mar 29, 2025
COL @ TB
2 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Colorado
COL
162
Games Played
162
4.54
Runs / Game
▲
4.64
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.254
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.322
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.417
.728
OPS
▲
.739
169
Home Runs
▲
180
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+48.9% more
Colorado: 8.4
vs
Tampa Bay: 5.6
Walks (L5)
+34.3% more
Colorado: 2.3
vs
Tampa Bay: 1.7
Total Bases (L5)
+22.3% more
Colorado: 19.8
vs
Tampa Bay: 16.2
Errors (L5)
+22.0% more
Colorado: 0.9
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
3.3
9
COL Score
4.5
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
11.3 / 10.1
11.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 1.6
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.4 / 5.6
8.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
19.8 / 16.2
21.0 / 17.0
Walks
2.3 / 1.7
2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -136 / +113
→
-169 / +155
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / --
→
-- / --
Total (O/U)
Open: 11
→
10.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
TB
COL
TB
ML
60%
97-64
58%
95-68
55%
88-73
58%
95-68
ATS
60%
97-64
60%
97-66
52%
83-78
55%
90-73
TTL
60%
93-62-6
47%
73-81-9
50%
77-78-6
51%
78-75-10
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