TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
53-61 | Road
2
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
59-56 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Trey Yesavage
#39 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Hayden Wesneski
#39 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Yesavage | 5-5 | 3.65 | 1.16 | 2.0 | -- |
| Hayden Wesneski | 1-0 | 3.86 | 1.59 | 6.0 | 4 |
5-5
W-L
1-0
3.65 Ldr
ERA
3.86
1.16 Ldr
WHIP
1.59
2.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
50%
ASTROS
50%
▲ Edge: +5.80% (TOR)
BLUE JAYS
44%
Book Odds: +126
ASTROS
58%
Book Odds: -137
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
8.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.0 (Over)
Over 8.5
61%
Under 8.5
39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.1
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around HOU +0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
TOR By 1-2 runs
18.6%
TOR By 3-4 runs
13.9%
HOU By 1-2 runs
18.3%
HOU By 3-4 runs
13.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
4.8
TORONTO
Houston
4.7
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Houston
5
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Astros
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Astros (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.1
B
Sim
Astros (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.5
B
Sim
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 5, 2026
TOR @ HOU
5 - 4
Aug 4, 2026
TOR @ HOU
2 - 7
Aug 3, 2026
TOR @ HOU
3 - 1
Jun 24, 2026
HOU @ TOR
3 - 1
Jun 23, 2026
HOU @ TOR
9 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Houston
HOU
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.00
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.310
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.381
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.692
▲
OPS
.582
152
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+97.4% more
Toronto: 152.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+25.0% more
Toronto: 4.0
vs
Houston: 3.0
OPS (Season)
+11.0%
Toronto: 69.2%
vs
Houston: 58.2%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+8.1%
Toronto: 31.0%
vs
Houston: 22.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
4.8
2
HOU Score
4.7
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.4
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
11.5 / 7.6
9.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 0.5
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.7 / 6.7
4.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
16.7 / 11.0
13.0 / 8.0
Walks
4.7 / 1.8
7.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +109 / -131
→
+126 / -137
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / --
→
-- / --
Total (O/U)
Open: 8.5
→
8.5
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
TOR
HOU
TOR
ML
50%
81-82
46%
74-87
47%
77-87
50%
80-80
ATS
56%
91-72
56%
90-71
55%
90-74
49%
79-81
TTL
45%
70-84-9
51%
80-76-5
45%
69-86-9
45%
70-85-5
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