Home / MLB Projections MLB / Giants @ Rangers SF @ TEX

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

48-66  |  Road

4
FINAL
Tue, Aug 4 • 8:05 PM ET
Globe Life Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

56-58  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Blade Tidwell
STARTING PITCHER

Blade Tidwell

#46 | Relief Pitcher
@
MacKenzie Gore
STARTING PITCHER

MacKenzie Gore

#1 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Blade Tidwell 0-0 3.18 1.08 5.0 3
MacKenzie Gore 6-9 4.55 1.26 6.0 4
0-0 W-L 6-9
3.18 Ldr ERA 4.55
1.08 Ldr WHIP 1.26
5.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.0
3 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
61%
📊
RANGERS
39%
▲ Edge: +23.90% (SF)
GIANTS 37% Book Odds: +171
RANGERS 65% Book Odds: -187
Book Implied: 36.90% / 65.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.6
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 (Over)
Over 8.0 66%
Under 8.0 34%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.2
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
GiantsSF (-3.5) 0 RangersTEX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

38.2%

Rangers Cover

61.8%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TEX +1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

SF By 1-2 runs

19.7%

SF By 3-4 runs

16.8%

TEX By 1-2 runs

15.8%

TEX By 3-4 runs

10.0%

AI Model Projected Score
5.4
SAN FRANCISCO
4.2
TEXAS
Simulated Score
3
SAN FRANCISCO
5
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Giants Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Sim Rangers Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rangers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.2
A
Sim Rangers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.6
A
Sim u8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 5, 2026 SF @ TEX 0 - 6
Aug 4, 2026 SF @ TEX 4 - 5
Aug 3, 2026 SF @ TEX 5 - 1
Apr 27, 2025 TEX @ SF 2 - 3
Apr 26, 2025 TEX @ SF 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
Texas TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.13
Runs / Game
▲ 4.15
.245 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.706
OPS
▲ .713
178
Home Runs
▲ 183
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +26.7% more
San Francisco: 1.5 vs Texas: 1.1
Total Bases (L5) +16.5% more
San Francisco: 12.9 vs Texas: 10.7
Hits (L5) +13.7% more
San Francisco: 7.6 vs Texas: 6.6
Walks (L5) +11.4% more
San Francisco: 3.6 vs Texas: 3.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 5.4 4
TEX Score 4.2 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.7 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.6 / 7.6 11.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 1.5 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 10.5 / 6.9 5.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 10.7 / 12.9 15.0 / 11.0
Walks 3.2 / 3.6 4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +162 / -198 → +171 / -187 ↓
34%TICKETS66%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
35%TICKETS65%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: 8 → 8
61%TICKETS39%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
TEX Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
SF
TEX
SF
ML
53% 86-76
49% 79-81
57% 91-70
53% 85-75
ATS
57% 92-70
62% 100-60
61% 98-63
52% 83-77
TTL
53% 78-70-14
55% 82-68-10
55% 81-66-14
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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