LOS ANGELES
DODGERSLAD
69-45 | Road
1
CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
65-49 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tarik Skubal
#29 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Javier Assad
#72 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Skubal | 7-5 | 2.81 | 0.91 | 6.0 | 6 |
| Javier Assad | 6-1 | 3.58 | 1.16 | 5.2 | 3 |
7-5
W-L
6-1
2.81 Ldr
ERA
3.58
0.91 Ldr
WHIP
1.16
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
5.2
6 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
40%
CUBS
60%
▲ Edge: +23.40% (CHC)
DODGERS
65%
Book Odds: -186
CUBS
37%
Book Odds: +170
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.8 (Over)
Over 9.0
57%
Under 9.0
43%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
LAD By 1-2 runs
16.3%
LAD By 3-4 runs
10.6%
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CHC By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Los Angeles
4.4
LOS ANGELES
Chicago
5.4
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Los Angeles
6
LOS ANGELES
Chicago
3
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cubs
Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
Dodgers
Loss
77% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cubs (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Sim
Dodgers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.8
C
Sim
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 5, 2026
LAD @ CHC
6 - 7
Aug 4, 2026
LAD @ CHC
1 - 5
Aug 3, 2026
LAD @ CHC
5 - 10
Apr 26, 2026
CHC @ LAD
0 - 6
Apr 25, 2026
CHC @ LAD
4 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles
LAD
vs
Chicago
CHC
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.94
▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.257
▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.338
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.424
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.762
▲
OPS
.374
204
▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+152.9% more
Chicago: 5.2
vs
Los Angeles: 2.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+46.0% more
Chicago: 9.2
vs
Los Angeles: 6.3
Home Runs (L5)
+35.3% more
Chicago: 1.6
vs
Los Angeles: 1.2
Home Runs (Season)
+100.0% more
Los Angeles: 204.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LAD Score
4.4
1
CHC Score
5.4
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.9
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.8 / 9.7
9.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 1.2
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.2 / 6.3
8.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
14.3 / 14.4
17.0 / 7.0
Walks
5.2 / 2.1
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -203 / +185
→
-186 / +170
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / --
→
-- / --
Total (O/U)
Open: 9
→
9
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD
Advantage
103-63-0
(62.1%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
CHC
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2
ATS +/-:
CHC
Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3%
Total +/-: 0.0
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
LAD
CHC
LAD
ML
58%
93-68
56%
92-73
51%
82-79
48%
79-87
ATS
61%
97-63-1
59%
98-67
47%
75-85-1
43%
72-94
TTL
52%
81-74-6
48%
77-82-6
46%
72-83-6
44%
70-90-6
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