PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
57-58 | Road
2
MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
70-43 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jared Jones
#17 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Logan Henderson
#43 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Jones | 2-2 | 4.02 | 1.02 | 4.0 | 4 |
| Logan Henderson | 5-1 | 2.70 | 0.91 | 6.0 | 8 |
2-2
W-L
5-1
4.02
ERA
Ldr 2.70
1.02
WHIP
Ldr 0.91
4.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
4
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 8
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
30%
BREWERS
70%
▲ Edge: +11.10% (MIL)
PIRATES
44%
Book Odds: +130
BREWERS
59%
Book Odds: -141
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +1.9 (Over)
Over 7.5
68%
Under 7.5
32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIL -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
PIT By 1-2 runs
13.0%
PIT By 3-4 runs
7.3%
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.4%
MIL By 3-4 runs
18.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3.6
PITTSBURGH
Milwaukee
5.8
MILWAUKEE
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
Milwaukee
3
MILWAUKEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Brewers
Win
70% Win Prob
A
Sim
Pirates
Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Brewers (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.2
C
Sim
Pirates (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.4
A
Sim
u7.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 17, 2026
MIL @ PIT
4 - 7
Sep 16, 2026
MIL @ PIT
5 - 4
Sep 15, 2026
MIL @ PIT
5 - 1
Aug 6, 2026
PIT @ MIL
2 - 5
Aug 5, 2026
PIT @ MIL
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Milwaukee
MIL
162
Games Played
162
4.73
Runs / Game
▲
5.14
.253
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.330
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.341
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.403
.734
OPS
▲
.743
186
▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+29.4% more
Milwaukee: 4.9
vs
Pittsburgh: 3.8
Home Runs (L5)
+14.0% more
Milwaukee: 0.4
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.3
Runs per Game (Season)
+8.7% more
Milwaukee: 5.1
vs
Pittsburgh: 4.7
On-Base Pct (Season)
+1.1%
Milwaukee: 34.1%
vs
Pittsburgh: 33.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.6
2
MIL Score
5.8
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.6 / 7.2
11.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 0.3
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.8 / 10.1
8.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
9.0 / 9.2
17.0 / 11.0
Walks
4.9 / 3.8
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +139 / -168
→
+130 / -141
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / --
→
-- / --
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
7.5
↓
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIL
PIT
MIL
PIT
ML
62%
101-61
52%
82-77
52%
84-78
52%
85-78
ATS
58%
94-68
54%
86-73
48%
78-84
50%
81-82
TTL
40%
62-92-8
47%
72-81-6
50%
77-77-8
50%
79-78-6
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
Trump to Honor Roger Clemens with Presidential Medal of Freedom