MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
56-58 | Road
2
KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
47-67 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Joe Ryan
#41 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Randy Dobnak
#62 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Ryan | 6-7 | 3.65 | 1.11 | 5.1 | 3 |
| Randy Dobnak | 1-0 | 1.16 | 1.19 | 5.0 | 1 |
6-7
W-L
1-0
3.65
ERA
Ldr 1.16
1.11 Ldr
WHIP
1.19
5.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
5.0
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
50%
ROYALS
50%
▲ Edge: +7.20% (KC)
TWINS
59%
Book Odds: -143
ROYALS
43%
Book Odds: +132
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.1
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +1.9 (Under)
Over 9.0
34%
Under 9.0
66%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)
MIN By 1-2 runs
18.3%
MIN By 3-4 runs
13.3%
KC By 1-2 runs
18.6%
KC By 3-4 runs
13.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
3.5
MINNESOTA
Kansas City
3.6
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
Minnesota
3
MINNESOTA
Kansas City
6
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Royals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Royals
Win
77% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Royals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.1
B
Sim
Royals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.1
A
Sim
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 6, 2026
MIN @ KC
4 - 3
Aug 5, 2026
MIN @ KC
1 - 2
Aug 4, 2026
MIN @ KC
2 - 8
Jul 30, 2026
KC @ MIN
3 - 4
Jul 29, 2026
KC @ MIN
4 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota
MIN
vs
Kansas City
KC
162
Games Played
162
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.403
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.720
▲
OPS
.718
187
▲
Home Runs
170
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+24.0% more
Kansas City: 0.4
vs
Minnesota: 0.1
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.2%
Kansas City: 24.7%
vs
Minnesota: 24.5%
Home Runs (L5)
+45.3% more
Minnesota: 2.0
vs
Kansas City: 1.1
Walks (L5)
+13.1% more
Minnesota: 2.2
vs
Kansas City: 1.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
3.5
2
KC Score
3.6
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.1
1.0 / 2.0
Hits
7.6 / 8.1
10.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 2.0
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.9 / 7.1
5.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
13.8 / 15.6
14.0 / 11.0
Walks
1.9 / 2.2
4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -144 / +119
→
-143 / +132
↓
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / --
→
-- / --
Total (O/U)
Open: 9
→
9
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
MIN
KC
MIN
ML
55%
89-72
52%
84-78
56%
90-70
50%
80-81
ATS
57%
91-70
59%
95-67
58%
93-67
59%
95-66
TTL
58%
90-64-7
51%
78-75-9
54%
83-70-7
53%
80-72-9
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