MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
58-56 | Road
2
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
68-45 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Ryan Gusto
#65 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Grant Holmes
#66 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Gusto | 0-2 | 4.80 | 1.44 | 6.0 | 5 |
| Grant Holmes | 6-4 | 3.67 | 1.36 | 6.0 | 5 |
0-2
W-L
6-4
4.80
ERA
Ldr 3.67
1.44
WHIP
Ldr 1.36
6.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
6.0
5
K (Strikeouts)
5
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
62%
BRAVES
38%
▲ Edge: +19.40% (MIA)
MARLINS
42%
Book Odds: +137
BRAVES
60%
Book Odds: -149
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.6 (Under)
Over 9.0
46%
Under 9.0
54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.2
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATL +1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
MIA By 1-2 runs
19.7%
MIA By 3-4 runs
16.8%
ATL By 1-2 runs
15.8%
ATL By 3-4 runs
10.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
4.8
MIAMI
Atlanta
3.6
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Miami
4
MIAMI
Atlanta
6
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Marlins
Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Sim
Braves
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Braves (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.2
A
Sim
Braves (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.4
C
Sim
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
ATL @ MIA
3 - 5
Sep 26, 2026
ATL @ MIA
8 - 3
Sep 25, 2026
ATL @ MIA
0 - 3
Aug 6, 2026
MIA @ ATL
3 - 11
Aug 5, 2026
MIA @ ATL
1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Atlanta
ATL
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.41
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.324
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.727
OPS
▲
.757
168
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+99.4% more
Miami: 168.0
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+14.1% more
Miami: 6.9
vs
Atlanta: 5.9
Walks (L5)
+12.2% more
Miami: 2.8
vs
Atlanta: 2.5
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.6%
Miami: 24.9%
vs
Atlanta: 23.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
4.8
2
ATL Score
3.6
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.4
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.2 / 7.3
7.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
2.0 / 1.4
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
5.9 / 6.9
6.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
15.5 / 12.6
15.0 / 10.0
Walks
2.5 / 2.8
1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +113 / -136
→
+137 / -149
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / --
→
-- / --
Total (O/U)
Open: 9
→
9
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
MIA
ATL
MIA
ML
46%
77-90
48%
78-84
54%
90-78
55%
88-72
ATS
57%
96-71
56%
91-71
52%
87-81
54%
86-74
TTL
53%
83-73-11
56%
88-69-5
49%
76-80-11
53%
82-73-5
Contextual Game News
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