CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
59-53 | Road
2
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
61-51 | Home
14
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Davis Martin
#65 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Patrick Sandoval
#43 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Martin | 9-5 | 4.13 | 1.26 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Patrick Sandoval | 0-0 | 3.38 | 1.58 | 5.0 | 5 |
9-5
W-L
0-0
4.13
ERA
Ldr 3.38
1.26 Ldr
WHIP
1.58
5.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
5.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
58%
RED SOX
42%
▲ Edge: +15% (CHW)
WHITE SOX
43%
Book Odds: +134
RED SOX
59%
Book Odds: -146
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.3
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▼
Edge: +0.7 (Under)
Over 9.0
44%
Under 9.0
56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.9
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS +0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
CHW By 1-2 runs
19.5%
CHW By 3-4 runs
16.1%
BOS By 1-2 runs
16.6%
BOS By 3-4 runs
10.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
4.6
CHICAGO
Boston
3.7
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Boston
4
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
White Sox
Loss
58% Win Prob
C
Sim
White Sox
Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Red Sox (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.9
A
Sim
White Sox (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.3
C
Sim
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 6, 2026
CHW @ BOS
11 - 12
Aug 5, 2026
CHW @ BOS
0 - 4
Aug 4, 2026
CHW @ BOS
2 - 14
Jul 9, 2026
BOS @ CHW
2 - 1
Jul 8, 2026
BOS @ CHW
5 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHW
vs
Boston
BOS
1
Games Played
▲
2
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.324
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.415
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.412
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.826
▲
OPS
.409
1
Home Runs
▲
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+83.3% more
Chicago: 6.0
vs
Boston: 1.0
Errors (L5)
+68.0% more
Chicago: 1.3
vs
Boston: 0.4
OPS (Season)
+41.7%
Chicago: 82.6%
vs
Boston: 40.9%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+25.6%
Chicago: 41.5%
vs
Boston: 15.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHW Score
4.6
2
BOS Score
3.7
14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 1.3
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.2 / 7.4
15.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
2.4 / 1.9
4.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.8 / 10.9
2.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
16.2 / 14.5
30.0 / 7.0
Walks
3.6 / 2.4
3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +102 / -122
→
+134 / -146
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / --
→
-- / --
Total (O/U)
Open: 9
→
9
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
CHW
BOS
CHW
ML
50%
80-80
49%
81-86
47%
76-87
56%
94-73
ATS
58%
93-67
59%
99-68
48%
79-84
56%
93-74
TTL
46%
72-83-5
58%
96-69-2
47%
74-83-6
51%
84-81-2
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