ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
56-58 | Road
0
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
64-50 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Hunter Dobbins
#40 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Ryan Weathers
#40 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Dobbins | 2-1 | 3.60 | 1.34 | 6.1 | 4 |
| Ryan Weathers | 4-7 | 3.79 | 1.24 | 6.0 | 6 |
2-1
W-L
4-7
3.60 Ldr
ERA
3.79
1.34
WHIP
Ldr 1.24
6.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
6.0
4
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
53%
YANKEES
47%
▲ Edge: +17.20% (STL)
CARDINALS
36%
Book Odds: +182
YANKEES
67%
Book Odds: -200
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
8.0
Over / Under Line
Over 8.0
46%
Under 8.0
54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.4
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYY +0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
STL By 1-2 runs
19.0%
STL By 3-4 runs
14.7%
NYY By 1-2 runs
17.7%
NYY By 3-4 runs
12.4%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
4.2
ST. LOUIS
New York
3.8
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
St. Louis
3
ST. LOUIS
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals
Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim
Yankees
Win
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Yankees (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.4
A
Sim
Yankees (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
u8.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim
u8.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 5, 2026
STL @ NYY
3 - 1
Aug 4, 2026
STL @ NYY
0 - 2
Aug 3, 2026
STL @ NYY
13 - 7
Aug 17, 2025
NYY @ STL
8 - 4
Aug 16, 2025
NYY @ STL
12 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
New York
NYY
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.44
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.691
OPS
▲
1.041
167
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+98.8% more
St. Louis: 167.0
vs
New York: 2.0
Walks (L5)
+58.4% more
St. Louis: 4.4
vs
New York: 1.8
Errors (L5)
+25.0% more
St. Louis: 0.3
vs
New York: 0.1
Hits (L5)
+24.0% more
St. Louis: 9.8
vs
New York: 7.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
4.2
0
NYY Score
3.8
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.5 / 9.8
5.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
2.3 / 1.8
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.3 / 8.5
5.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
15.4 / 17.1
11.0 / 7.0
Walks
1.8 / 4.4
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +144 / -175
→
+182 / -200
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / --
→
-- / --
Total (O/U)
Open: 8
→
8
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
STL
NYY
STL
ML
47%
76-85
53%
85-74
52%
85-77
52%
84-77
ATS
59%
95-66
56%
89-70
53%
86-76
53%
85-76
TTL
53%
81-73-7
46%
68-81-10
53%
82-72-7
50%
76-75-10
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