WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
55-60 | Road
0
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
61-53 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Zack Littell
#18 | SP@
STARTING PITCHER
Jesus Luzardo
#44 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Littell | 7-8 | 4.97 | 1.34 | 6.2 | 2 |
| Jesus Luzardo | 9-5 | 3.36 | 1.19 | 8.0 | 7 |
7-8
W-L
9-5
4.97
ERA
Ldr 3.36
1.34
WHIP
Ldr 1.19
6.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 8.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 7
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
40%
PHILLIES
60%
▲ Edge: +12.50% (WSH)
NATIONALS
28%
Book Odds: +261
PHILLIES
75%
Book Odds: -294
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
9.0
Over / Under Line
▲
Edge: +0.7 (Over)
Over 9.0
58%
Under 9.0
42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
WSH By 1-2 runs
16.1%
WSH By 3-4 runs
10.3%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.6%
PHI By 3-4 runs
16.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
4.3
WASHINGTON
Philadelphia
5.4
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Philadelphia
6
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
Phillies
Win
77% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phillies (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.1
C
Sim
Phillies (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.7
C
Sim
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 16, 2026
PHI @ WSH
3 - 0
Sep 15, 2026
PHI @ WSH
3 - 6
Aug 6, 2026
WSH @ PHI
3 - 7
Aug 5, 2026
WSH @ PHI
10 - 4
Aug 4, 2026
WSH @ PHI
0 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.321
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.423
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.744
▲
OPS
.724
210
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+23.1% more
Philadelphia: 7.3
vs
Washington: 5.9
Total Bases (L5)
+19.9% more
Philadelphia: 12.7
vs
Washington: 10.6
Home Runs (L5)
+17.9% more
Philadelphia: 1.5
vs
Washington: 1.2
Walks (L5)
+14.9% more
Philadelphia: 4.5
vs
Washington: 3.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
4.3
0
PHI Score
5.4
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.9
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.3 / 5.9
11.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 1.2
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.2 / 8.7
4.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
12.7 / 10.6
14.0 / 7.0
Walks
4.5 / 3.9
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +180 / -221
→
+261 / -294
↑
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / --
→
-- / --
Total (O/U)
Open: 9
→
9
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
WSH
PHI
WSH
ML
59%
97-67
57%
92-69
49%
80-84
54%
87-74
ATS
65%
107-57
58%
93-68
51%
83-81
57%
91-70
TTL
57%
88-67-9
50%
77-78-6
51%
78-76-9
42%
65-90-6
Contextual Game News
Alex Cora Joins Growing List of Unavailable Managers for Seattle…
Phillies' 2027 Rotation Projection: Wheeler and Sanchez Lead Sta…
Alex Cora Rejects Phillies Again, Opts to Sit Out 2027 Season
Phillies' Managerial Plans Thrown Into Disarray as Alex Cora Opt…
A's Seth Johnson Undergoes Knee Surgery, Eyes Spring Training Re…