Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Guardians NYM @ CLE

NEW YORK

METSNYM

48-66  |  Road

6
FINAL
Tue, Aug 4 • 6:40 PM ET
Progressive Field
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

57-57  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Sean Manaea
STARTING PITCHER

Sean Manaea

#59 | Starting Pitcher
@
Joey Cantillo
STARTING PITCHER

Joey Cantillo

#54 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Sean Manaea 2-5 4.33 1.34 6.0 7
Joey Cantillo 8-6 3.87 1.45 5.0 5
2-5 W-L 8-6
4.33 ERA Ldr 3.87
1.34 Ldr WHIP 1.45
6.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 5.0
7 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 5
AI Model Win Probability
METS
61%
📊
GUARDIANS
39%
▲ Edge: +15.60% (NYM)
METS 46% Book Odds: +119
GUARDIANS 56% Book Odds: -128
Book Implied: 45.70% / 56.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.6
Projected
Book Total
7.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 (Over)
Over 7.5 53%
Under 7.5 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
MetsNYM (-3.5) 0 GuardiansCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

36.3%

Guardians Cover

63.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CLE +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.7%

NYM By 3-4 runs

17.2%

CLE By 1-2 runs

15.3%

CLE By 3-4 runs

9.5%

AI Model Projected Score
4.5
NEW YORK
3.1
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mets Win
61% Win Prob
C
Sim Guardians Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Guardians (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.4
A
Sim Guardians (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 7.6
D
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 6, 2026 NYM @ CLE 13 - 6
Aug 5, 2026 NYM @ CLE 6 - 5
Aug 4, 2026 NYM @ CLE 6 - 2
Aug 6, 2025 CLE @ NYM 4 - 1
Aug 5, 2025 CLE @ NYM 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
Cleveland CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.31 ▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.239
Avg (AVG)
.239
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .316
.395 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.705 ▲
OPS
.696
204 ▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +20.6% more
New York: 204.0 vs Cleveland: 162.0
Runs per Game (Season) +2.8% more
New York: 4.3 vs Cleveland: 4.2
Slugging Pct (Season) +1.5%
New York: 39.5% vs Cleveland: 38.0%
OPS (Season) +0.9%
New York: 70.5% vs Cleveland: 69.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 4.5 6
CLE Score 3.1 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.1 / 0.6 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.4 / 6.4 7.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 0.7 0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 7.8 / 8.4 8.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 12.7 / 9.9 9.0 / 19.0
Walks 3.7 / 2.9 8.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +135 / -147 → +119 / -128 ↓
26%TICKETS74%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
19%TICKETS81%
11%MONEY89%
Total (O/U)
Open: 7.5 → 7.5
61%TICKETS39%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CLE Advantage
87-79-0 (52.4%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CLE Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
CLE
81-84-1
O: 49.1% / U: 50.9% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
NYM
CLE
NYM
ML
54% 87-75
50% 79-80
49% 80-83
48% 76-83
ATS
57% 93-69
58% 93-66
58% 95-68
49% 78-81
TTL
56% 89-71-2
55% 80-66-13
44% 70-90-2
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Guardians Storm Back in Game 4, Force Game 5 Against White Sox
cbssports 0 minutes ago
Guardians Outslug White Sox in Game 4 to Force Decisive ALDS Gam…
foxnews 0 minutes ago
White Sox Collapse in Game 4 Sets Up Winner-Take-All Game 5
si 0 minutes ago
Jose Ramirez Ignites Guardians' Comeback, Forces Game 5 vs. Whit…
yardbarker 0 minutes ago
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
si 3 hours, 53 minutes ago